PP wins 137 seats, investiture hinges on Puigdemont

PP wins 137 seats, investiture hinges on Puigdemont

With the final seat allocated, the balance of power for the investiture has shifted. The PP rises to 137 MPs, Vox stays at 33, the PSOE falls to 121, and Sumar settles at 31. Neither major bloc reaches a majority with its natural allies, so the key remains in Waterloo. And there, half-measures no longer suffice.

The arithmetic of the 137th seat: winners and losers

The raw numbers: 170 MPs for PP and Vox; 152 for PSOE and Sumar. Far from governing alone. The results confirm what was expected: the right wins votes and seats across most of Spain, but the majority is decided in Catalonia and the Basque Country. Some argue that with Vox and the PNV, Feijóo could still aim for La Moncloa. Skepticism is widespread, however: the math doesn't add up, and the PNV is not a cheap partner.

The extra seat doesn't change the election's outcome, only the margin. With 137, the PP has more leverage to demand concessions and fewer excuses not to try. With 121, the PSOE remains dependent on the same traditional partners and rising costs.

Puigdemont can no longer abstain

The situation is clear: Junts can no longer rely on abstention. It must either support Sánchez or break the block. Comfortable abstention, which allowed saying one thing in Barcelona and another in Madrid, is no longer viable. There are jokes that Puigdemont's abstention would make Feijóo president. While hyperbolic, this highlights the pressure on the former president.

Politically, the price is higher. Every concession Sánchez makes in Catalonia carries an electoral cost elsewhere. Ergo the warning persists: the more given to Puigdemont, the worse it goes for the PSOE outside Catalonia.

Useful voting, Vox, and 3 million voters

The debate over wasted votes will return. Only three constituencies—Girona, Lleida, and Gipuzkoa—offer no prospects for Vox; elsewhere, shifting votes to the PP could gain or lose seats for the opposing bloc. In Albacete, for instance, Vox narrowly missed a seat that might have been taken from the PSOE with PP transfers.

Others argue Vox won't move. Three million voters is the repeated figure, and supporters see no reason to return to the PP. The counterargument is strategic: if the party maintains its current messaging, it may fail to win even fifteen seats.

Why talk of elections in mid-December?

Because the investiture fails and time runs out. The probability cited is high: 60% chance of new elections. The timing is problematic. Voting during Christmas means traveling, bringing postal voting back into focus, which has proven decisive. "The secret lies in postal voting," summarizes another view.

Some suggest that without massive postal voting, mobilized electorate behavior would change. Remember, repeating elections guarantees nothing: the previous count left an equilibrium nobody could resolve.

The narrative: the left distributes, the right blames

While some discuss ministerial portfolios and Cortes leadership, others debate blame. This asymmetry, analysts note, is the PP's real problem: failing to impose its own narrative after winning. Feijóo appears deflated, and his spokespeople ask socialists to abstain, which won't happen.

Meanwhile, ERC and Junts fight to capitalize on the moment. ERC feels pressured to align with Junts, even within government, to avoid being sidelined. A non-binding consultation in Catalonia is assumed: losing it would be a long-term blow; winning changes little as it isn't binding.

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Finally, numerology. 137 is the 33rd prime number. 121 is 11 squared. 31 is the 11th prime. Such coincidences fuel weeks of commentary. Unfortunately, numbers don't vote.