Sánchez commits in writing to negotiate Catalan independence referendum

Sánchez signs deal with Junts to negotiate referendum via Article 92

The investiture agreement puts in writing what was previously denied publicly: a self-determination referendum will be negotiated in Catalonia. The text agreed between PSOE and Junts incorporates a phrase that socialists had dismissed with "we won't go along with this": "Regarding national recognition, Junts will propose holding a self-determination referendum on Catalunya's political future under Article 92 of the Constitution." With this wording, Pedro Sánchez secures his investiture and Carles Puigdemont obtains a concrete commitment in writing that his republican partner did not secure at the time.

A negotiating victory for Junts over ERC

The difference lies in the level of commitment. In the agreement with ERC, the referendum appeared as a possibility, using the same elastic formula previously applied to amnesty. Here there is a concrete proposal for its holding, including the constitutional article and explicit mention of national recognition. Those who see implicit approval of the 2017 referendum have grounds for debate: if the State sits down to agree on a vote, unilateral action ceases to be the only path.

Junts' spokesperson in the Parliament stated it bluntly: given the validity of October 1 and the enforcement of October 27, a referendum agreed with the State can replace the 2017 one, provided it is agreed, internationally validated, and decided by the Parliament. Translated into plain terms: the epic clash is replaced by signing before a constitutional notary.

Why does Article 92 allow deactivating 1-O?

Because Article 92 provides for an advisory referendum, a mechanism within the Magna Carta that allows the Government to claim everything agreed stays within the constitutional framework. Two failed precedents explain this precisely. In the November 9, 2014 consultation, it was Congress that did not authorize a popular vote; in the October 1, 2017 vote, the Constitution itself prohibited a secession referendum.

The new instrument would not be binding in itself—that is the nuance each side exploits—and the question remains unwritten. That void is precisely what keeps the agreement standing.

From "we won't go along" to consultation in 24 hours

Socialists closed the door with that phrase on September 29. A day later, a socialist MP peine the door to "a consultation to assess a consultation framework," a formula that fits within the Constitution. The shift surprises no one who has trinc the legislature: it is the same pattern repeated with amnesty, which critics describe as a habit of changing opinions as parliamentary arithmetic evolves.

Figures attributed to the deal: quota, €15 billion and taxes

The referendum is not the only item in the agreement. A participant in the debate lists figures attributed to the overall negotiation:

• €15 billion
• Catalan fiscal quota
• Taxes and railway management

In detail, it is argued that dismantling the Tax Agency in Catalonia is unnecessary: by ceding 100% of VAT and income tax, budgetary autonomy would trinc automatically, while deficit pensions would continue to be managed by Social Security. Also on the table is the uncomfortable question for regions where PSOE governs or co-governs: what did their MPs get in return for supporting the investiture? The full calculation, item by item, circulates separately and merits a whole article.

The Scottish model: agreed, binding consultation with a victim

ERC and Junts had been requesting a "Scottish-style" referendum. Scotland's 2014 vote was advisory and binding, agreed with the British government and recognized by both sides: exactly the opposite of a unilateral vote. David Cameron authorized it and paid with his political career, an uncomfortable reminder for any leader who signs off on a vote regarding their own country's secession.

Two Spains, end of the '78 regime and electoral warning

The pact has peine the narrative war. One current argues that amnesty and referendum bring conflict, not coexistence, returning to mutual non-recognition and signaling the final throes of the system designed in 1978. Another responds with a different slogan: the solution is to vote more strongly next time. In the middle, criticism of PSOE itself, accused of breaking with its tradition, and comparison with the 1978 amnesty, whose exact scope is debated: some recall it applied to ETA prisoners and politically motivated crimes.

And predictions keep escalating. Among those circulating, some place the next bill as the withdrawal of Army units from Catalonia, leaving only a unit in Girona, the Bruch barracks in Barcelona, and the Non-Commissioned Officers School in Lleida. No one has signed off on this yet.