PP and Vox near Spain's absolute majority amid poll ban

The 176 seats PP and Vox need remain unclear in leaked polls

July 2023. As the general election campaign enters its final stretch, public discourse has shifted from policy platforms to seat projections. Just when electoral law prohibits publishing new surveys, figures circulate more intensely: forwarded screenshots, shared links, and unsigned numbers. The central question is simple arithmetic. Do PP and Vox reach the 176 seats required for an absolute majority? Based on available data, the answer remains open.

What are banned polls and why do they still spread?

Electoral regulations prohibit publishing polls in the days before voting, but this ban backfires: it turns every estimate into coveted material. A poll-tracking website is linked in threads; digital media outlets are cited as sources of data series; even foreign publications serve as mirrors for sharing graphics. Nothing new under the sun, except for the intensity.

The notable aspect is how these projections are used. They cease to guide voters and become ammunition: if a number favors one side, it is shared; if it causes discomfort, the messenger is discredited. The most common accusation, always without proof, attributes one of these pages to a government minister's circle. Any data contradicting one's own narrative is deemed manipulation, resulting in an ecosystem where people choose their preferred poll like choosing a football team.

PP's seat count fluctuates between 152 and 160

The most frequently cited survey assigns the PP 152 seats in its latest release on Monday, while another projection gives them 160. Supporters claim its credibility stems from being the most accurate polling firm in regional elections. This detail matters because it sets the threshold: with 152 seats, the absolute majority depends entirely on Vox's performance and any surplus votes captured in medium-sized provinces.

This opens the door to optimistic calculations. In territories where the last seat is decided by a handful of votes, a slight increase can change the entire distribution. This is the argument of those who believe there will be surprises on Sunday in constituencies that projections consider closed. It is not an absurd thesis, but it cannot be verified until the polls open.

Feijóo, the debate, and vote leakage to Vox

Wednesday's televised debate looms over the entire campaign. Feijóo's absence is interpreted by part of the electorate as a miscalculation, with some arguing the PP candidate turned a certain victory into something much more doubtful. The opposite view also circulates: approaching Socialist territory could attract moderate votes and, incidentally, leave Vox with the role of necessary partner.

The exchange of votes between the two blocs is the variable no projection captures well. Some are convinced the debate caused a shift of PP voters toward Vox, while others believe the opposite, that Abascal wasted his turn. Both claims are made with equal certainty and neither can be measured until the count begins.

Correos, Valladolid, and the poll nobody believes

The most striking version claims informal counts were conducted at several Correos (Spanish postal service) offices among mail-in voters, showing PP and PSOE very close, around 120 seats each, with Sumar third at approximately 45. In the province of Valladolid, this narrative suggests a technical tie with a half-point lead for PP and Sumar ahead of Vox by three and a half points.

Contrast emerged with municipal data discussed in online threads. PSOE was the most voted list in Valladolid city with 58,900 votes versus 58,141 for PP, 36.8% against 36.3%: a narrow victory, eleven councilors for each party, and 3,600 votes from Ciudadanos left unallocated. From there to talk about a landslide is a stretch. Those handling the Correos tally present it, at best, as a poll with no statistical value.

How many seats are attributed to Sumar?

The range for Yolanda Díaz's platform is the best thermometer of uncertainty. Some forecasts place it below 30 seats if PSOE exceeds 100, others position it at 40, and the most generous raise it to 45. A difference of fifteen deputies between scenarios published the same week. With such margin, any statement about the final distribution is, literally, a gamble.

Useful vote and first-time voters

Another argument pervades the campaign: useful voting. Part of the right-wing electorate receives the message that supporting Vox wastes seats, while others respond that voting according to conviction is not waste. Among younger voters, the shift points in the opposite direction to what projections suggest: according to accounts from parents and relatives of 18-to-25-year-olds, a significant portion of this group will vote for Vox. This is bar-talk data, not poll data, and precisely for that reason it explains the general distrust.

Where the calculation gets stuck

With these pieces, the puzzle does not fit together. If PP stays at 152 and Vox does not boost its floor, the absolute majority depends on constituencies decided by hundreds of votes. If PP recovers 160 seats and hidden votes appear on Sunday, the sum resolves itself. No one disputes the arithmetic; they dispute the ingredients. And the only ingredient that cannot be leaked, bought, or banned is the one deposited in the ballot box.