Portugal: right wins election as Chega surges to 20%

Portugal: right wins election as Chega surges to 20%

The legislative elections in Portugal have delivered victory to the right and catapulted Chega to a result that, according to circulating estimates, stands at around 20% of the vote. The party that only a few years ago seemed marginal has landed 44-54 seats, according to that same estimate. Portugal's left, with a record in government many considered exemplary, is losing ground to a party that capitalizes on discontent over immigration, insecurity and the cost of living.

The result is not an isolated case. Across Europe, radical right parties are breaking electoral ceilings that once seemed untouchable. Portugal, with its Catholic and conservative tradition but also with a left that governed for years, becomes the latest link in a chain that already includes Italy, Sweden and the Netherlands. The question hanging over the analysis is whether the phenomenon reflects a structural shift in the electorate or a protest vote that will deflate once the left offers an inspiring narrative again.

The immigration factor: from Lisbon to Martim Moniz

Central Lisbon has become the visible stage for a demographic change that many voters associate with insecurity and the loss of identity. The Martim Moniz neighborhood, according to circulating accounts, seems "literally taken over" by communities from India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh. The perception that uncontrolled immigration has transformed entire neighborhoods fuels the vote for Chega, which has managed to exploit that discontent without the inhibitions that paralyze the traditional right.

In Spain, the phenomenon has its equivalent in neighborhoods like Lavapiés in Madrid or the Alhóndiga area of Bilbao, where the migrant population has grown rapidly. The difference is that Portugal lacks the territorial conflict that weighs on Vox in Catalonia or the Basque Country. Chega does not have to deal with separatism or the memory of aggressive centralism. That allows it to fish for votes across a broader spectrum, from left-wing disillusionment to the classic conservatism that never felt comfortable with the Socialist Party.

Why does Chega outperform Vox?

The comparison with Vox is inevitable. Chega has achieved 20% in a legislative election, while Vox remains at far lower figures in Spain. The key, according to converging analyses, lies in the context: Portugal has no separatist movements fragmenting the right-wing vote, nor a popular party competing for the same space with the same effectiveness. Portugal's PSD, the equivalent of Spain's PP, has not hesitated to flirt with Chega, or at least has not categorically excluded it, while in Spain the PP has swung between pact and rejection, confusing its own electorate.

Another factor is economic. Portugal has applied left-wing policies many consider failed: low wages, precariousness, high taxation. The Portuguese left, which boasted of having pulled the country out of the crisis through austerity and bailouts, has failed to translate macroeconomic recovery into well-being for the working class. Chega has harvested that anger with a direct, no-nonsense discourse that connects with voters who feel abandoned by the establishment parties.

The contagion effect in Spain

The Portuguese result is read in Spain as a warning. If in Portugal, with a more moderate left and a smaller country, the radical right is soaring, what prevents the same from happening here? The answer being offered is that Spain's PP is "as petty as imaginable" and that its strategy of refusing to pact with Vox is handing votes to the PSOE. Portugal's right, by contrast, has understood that pacting with Chega is not a mortal sin but a path to governing.

Spain's left, meanwhile, watches the result with concern. If the political pendulum is shifting in Europe, Spain will not be an exception. The next European elections will be a test. And the PSOE, which has built its narrative on the threat of the far right, may find that this narrative no longer mobilizes: people are tired of immigration, of insecurity, and of being told everything is fine while their neighborhood transforms.

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The analysis gets stuck on one point: there is no consensus on whether the shift is cyclical or structural. The data from Portugal point to the latter. But politics has unexpected turns. What today seems unstoppable can deflate if the left finds a discourse that connects. For now, Chega celebrates and Portugal's traditional right rubs its hands. In Spain, Vox watches with envy and the PP with unease. The pendulum is moving. And nobody knows where it will stop.