Poll: Will a hegemonic power emerge in 24 years?
Will China overtake the US within 24 years? The debate over the world's future hegemon, in an economic analysis featuring petrodollars, stablecoins and hidden power.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Who will dominate the world in 24 years? The bets between the US, China and the hidden power
A poll with a 24-year horizon on the next global hegemon pits two main camps against each other: the continuity of the United States and the rise of China. However, a detailed analysis reveals a minority but persistent current: the influence of Israel as the power behind the curtain, and the possibility that hegemony will be corporate or exercised by artificial intelligence. The petrodollar, stablecoins and runaway debt are the axes of the debate.
The tug-of-war between the eagle and the dragon
The majority option backs the United States as the guarantor of the world order, relying on its military, technological and cultural dominance. Yet data on public debt, inflation and internal division fuel skepticism. Against this, the pro-China camp argues that the Asian giant is already the de facto leading power, with its own technological innovation and a global trade network that sidesteps sanctions. The recurring argument is that America's collapse is only a matter of time, with a 15-year horizon mentioned for its definitive decline.
The petrodollar and the stablecoin trap
A critical point in the analysis is the end of the petrodollar, which some place in October of this year. Losing its energy monopoly would leave the United States without the main pillar supporting its currency. However, it is pointed out that stablecoins, seen by some as a contingency plan, already prop up part of US debt. The irony is that while the debate rages, the world is moving toward a multipolar system in which the dollar is no longer the only king.
The hidden power and corporate hegemony
A heterodox current holds that true hegemony will not be state-based, but corporate or driven by artificial intelligence. Israel appears as a key player pulling the strings from the shadows, capable of influencing any major power. Others bet on India as the world's next factory, or even on non-human entities. The most picturesque option, the uncontacted tribe of the Amazon, reflects skepticism about the viability of any traditional hegemony.
The open question is whether the next world order will be more of the same or a complete rupture. The data point nobody quite manages to explain is how the dollar will be sustained without oil, and whether stablecoins are the solution or the final nail in the coffin.
Related debates in the forum
A poll with a 24-year horizon on the next global hegemon pits two main camps against each other: the continuity of the United States and the rise of China. However, a detailed analysis reveals a minority but persistent current: the influence of Israel as the power behind the curtain, and the possibility that hegemony will be corporate or exercised by artificial intelligence. The petrodollar, stablecoins and runaway debt are the axes of the debate.
The tug-of-war between the eagle and the dragon
The majority option backs the United States as the guarantor of the world order, relying on its military, technological and cultural dominance. Yet data on public debt, inflation and internal division fuel skepticism. Against this, the pro-China camp argues that the Asian giant is already the de facto leading power, with its own technological innovation and a global trade network that sidesteps sanctions. The recurring argument is that America's collapse is only a matter of time, with a 15-year horizon mentioned for its definitive decline.
The petrodollar and the stablecoin trap
A critical point in the analysis is the end of the petrodollar, which some place in October of this year. Losing its energy monopoly would leave the United States without the main pillar supporting its currency. However, it is pointed out that stablecoins, seen by some as a contingency plan, already prop up part of US debt. The irony is that while the debate rages, the world is moving toward a multipolar system in which the dollar is no longer the only king.
The hidden power and corporate hegemony
A heterodox current holds that true hegemony will not be state-based, but corporate or driven by artificial intelligence. Israel appears as a key player pulling the strings from the shadows, capable of influencing any major power. Others bet on India as the world's next factory, or even on non-human entities. The most picturesque option, the uncontacted tribe of the Amazon, reflects skepticism about the viability of any traditional hegemony.
The open question is whether the next world order will be more of the same or a complete rupture. The data point nobody quite manages to explain is how the dollar will be sustained without oil, and whether stablecoins are the solution or the final nail in the coffin.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (40 replies).
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