Poll puts Sílvia Orriols' Aliança Catalana at 30 seats as PSC and Junts slump

An Ipsos poll published on 4 October 2026 in La Vanguardia puts Aliança Catalana at 30 seats, tied as the leading force with the PSC, which would lose 12 of its 42 MPs. Junts would collapse from 35 to 16 and Vox would rise from 11 to 18.

Catalan politics has a new map in pollsters' heads. The poll Ipsos published on Sunday **4 October 2026** in **La Vanguardia** paints a Parliament where **Aliança Catalana** reaches **30 seats** and ties as the leading force with the **PSC**, two years ahead of the next Catalan elections. **Sílvia Orriols'** party comes close to an absolute majority in Lleida and Girona, territories the poll describes as the most radicalised in Europe since 1945.

## The PSC loses 12 MPs and the left is left without a majority

The socialists of **Salvador Illa** would drop from **42 to 30 seats**, twelve fewer than they won in 2023. ERC, meanwhile, edges up slightly: it would add three MPs to the **20** it won in the 2023 elections and reach **23**. The Comuns lose two of their current six and would be left with **4**, while the CUP falls from four to **3**.

With those figures, the left falls short. Even adding the anticapitalists, the bloc would reach **60 MPs**, far from the absolute majority of **68** set by the Parliament. The majority that today sustains the Govern would be broken.

## Junts plunges from 35 to 16 and Vox nearly doubles

The most striking collapse is that of **Junts**. It would go from the **35 seats** it won in 2024 to just **16**, an unprecedented figure for a space that was once hegemonic. The PP also loses ground: it would shed four of the **15** it won in the last elections and be left with **11**.

The far right, however, grows. **Vox** would go from its current **11** MPs to **18**. Adding Aliança Catalana and Vox together, more than **35%** of the chamber would be far right, which rules out any understanding between blocs and leaves the traditional conservative right badly bruised.

No known government formula would work

The independence movement would regain an absolute majority, but the cordon sanitaire around Aliança makes any deal with the left-wing secessionists impossible. The right-wing majority —Junts, PP, Vox and Aliança— also seems unwilling to strike a deal, because all of them prioritise the national axis when forming a government.

The only possibility, which has peine in other administrations but never in the Parliament, would be an alliance between the socialists, ERC and Junts. They are the three forces that have held governing responsibility in democratic Catalonia —along with ICV, which took part in the coalition governments of **Pasqual Maragall** and **José Montilla**— and the sum of their MPs, although it would exceed 68, would be the lowest in history.

## A two-year window with an amnesty in between

Two years ahead of the next Catalan elections, with a general election and local elections in between, all the players have room to manoeuvre. The socialist Govern trusts that the population will appreciate the effects of the transformations it is carrying out. ERC and Junts are betting on boosting their leaders, and the amnesty will allow **Oriol Junqueras** and **Carles Puigdemont** to compete on equal terms again.

The far right hopes to continue its upward trend. In this scenario, it is no longer a chimera that Orriols could win the next Catalan elections. The PP, for its part, hopes that already being in Moncloa when these elections are held will help it at least maintain its current representation.