PNV calls Sánchez's early election call "surprising"

PNV criticizes Sánchez for calling early elections to shore up his position in the PSOE

Aitor Esteban made an unscheduled appearance at Sabin Etxea (the PNV's headquarters) to describe the early election call decided by Pedro Sánchez as "surprising" and "inappropriate". The PNV's spokesman in Congress argues that the announcement "has no logical explanation" and comes at a critical moment: the start of Spain's presidency of the EU Council and the formation of regional and local governments. The nationalist party's reading is that Sánchez is putting "internal, party-political calculation" before "the general benefit of all citizens". The PNV's anger is considerable: the early call catches them with their municipal homework half done and with EH Bildu closing in on them in the polls.

The PNV loses the calendar that gave it an edge

The early election call throws the PNV off balance because it breaks its natural cycle of negotiation. The Basque nationalists have built their influence in Madrid on a predictable pattern: Basque and municipal elections first, general elections later, and plenty of room to charge a premium for their support in Congress. With the snap call, that calendar falls apart. The nationalist party is left with no time to cash in on its position in the newly formed Basque institutions.

Some argue the PNV had turned short-term tactical maneuvering into its main asset. Thirty years of deals with one side and then the other, of extracting a toll from every government in office, of presenting itself as spotless administrators while everyone else got tangled up in scandals. That narrative cracks when your investiture partner calls an election without warning. The image of management geniuses crumbles in a single afternoon.

EH Bildu overtakes the PNV in the polls

The real earthquake for the PNV is not in Madrid, but at home. EH Bildu has capitalized on Podemos's decline in the Basque Country and now challenges the PNV for nationalist hegemony in key strongholds. According to the polls the parties are working with, the abertzale (pro-independence) coalition would win more seats than the PNV in a general election: 9 deputies to 7. In Gipuzkoa and Vitoria the trend is the same.

The math is simple: every seat Bildu gains in Madrid is a seat the PNV loses, and with it bargaining power. The paradox is that the PNV shifted to the left to stop Bildu, and the move has backfired. It has alienated part of its traditional electorate without winning over a single abertzale vote. The result is a party caught between two waters.

The PP and the PSOE divide up the space the PNV leaves behind

The early election call also reshuffles the national board. The PP, which has spent years paying a toll to the PNV in order to govern where it can, is rubbing its hands: the more seats the PNV loses, the cheaper its support becomes. The PSOE, for its part, reckons a weakened PNV will be a more docile partner. And Vox is emerging as a new player on the Basque board, though still with marginal weight.

The Basque paradox is that the PNV, which for decades has sold its ability to influence Madrid as its main electoral argument, may end up as the dispensable partner. If Bildu overtakes the PNV and the PSOE needs its votes, the geometry of the investiture changes completely. The PNV would go from indispensable kingmaker to sidekick with a voice but no veto.

Abstention rises and the PNV runs out of a story

Abstention in the Basque Country rose from 35% in the 2019 municipal elections to 40% in 2023. And in the 2021 regional elections it had already reached 49%. The figure is devastating for a party whose electorate is the most loyal in Spain: pensioners who vote the same way, generation after generation. The problem is that this base is dying off and not being renewed.

The children and grandchildren of those voters view the PNV with suspicion. They see party members placed in town halls, libraries and municipal subcontracting. They see people looking the other way when the town faces problems the party prefers not to mention. This generational divorce is the real threat, more than any early election call.

The toll the PNV used to charge Rajoy and no longer charges Sánchez

For years, the PNV squeezed Mariano Rajoy's PP to the point of absurdity. Every budget was an auction. Every act of support, an invoice. The no-confidence motion that brought down Rajoy in 2018 was partly the work of PNV calculations that Sánchez would be a more generous partner. Five years later, the calculation has proved wrong. Sánchez doesn't pay tolls; he calls elections when it suits him.

The irony is that the PNV, which helped topple Rajoy, now complains that Sánchez isn't thinking of the citizens. The same citizens the PNV ignored when it made deals with whoever it took to keep its share of power. Fate works in funny ways.

The figure that unsettles: 9 to 7

With these numbers, the PNV would go from being the government's preferred partner to being the dispensable one. Bildu would have more seats, more bargaining power and more presence in Madrid. The early election call doesn't just break the PNV's calendar: it could break its nationalist monopoly. And in Sabin Etxea, they know it.