Picazo’s May Heatwave Forecast Contradicted by Historical Records
Meteorologist Mario Picazo predicted 43°C and +12°C anomalies for May in Spain. AEMET records show higher temperatures occurred in 1999, 2012, and 2015.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Picazo Warns of 43°C in May; Thermometers Fall Short
Meteorologist Mario Picazo published a thermal anomaly map showing deviations of up to +12 degrees from the average in western parts of the Iberian Peninsula. The forecast suggested that temperatures could reach 42 or 43 degrees in the south during the remainder of the week, still within spring. The publication sparked a debate that went beyond meteorology, turning into a clash with the climate apocalypse narrative and its proponents.
The most common response was not to deny the heat, but to look at historical archives. Several posts retrieved records attributed to the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), showing higher maximum temperatures in previous Mays: 41.6°C in Seville, 40.7°C in Murcia, and 37.8°C in Bilbao between 1901 and 1960. Another note pointed out that on May 13, 2015, Seville airport recorded 40.8°C, exceeding the 39°C registered on May 30, 2024.
Why Doesn’t Picazo’s Map Match the Thermometers?
The core disagreement lies in the difference between anomaly and absolute temperature. An anomaly of +12 degrees does not miccionan street thermometers will record 12 degrees more than usual, but rather that the period’s average deviates from a historical reference. This nuance, obvious in technical reports, is lost when the data becomes a headline.
The sharpest criticism targeted the choice of reference point. If the anomaly is calculated against a recent average, the deviation appears inflated; if compared to the full series, it diminishes. And if compared to glacial maxima, as some messages ironically noted, the result is absurd. The question hovering over the discussion was simple: anomaly relative to what?
May Records That Debunk the Forecast
Data shared in the discussion depicts a May that did not reach the announced extremes. On May 30, 2024, Seville airport recorded 39°C. On May 13, 2015, it was 40.8°C. On May 13, 2012, 38.4°C. On May 12, 1999, 39.1°C. On May 17, 2006, 38.5°C. The series shows alternation, not escalation.
The comparison with the 1901-1960 period was the most uncomfortable. Those Mays, without satellites or purple alerts, recorded maximums that would be presented today as apocalyptic. One message summarized this with dry humor: in August, traveling from Madrid to Toledo required a dog-sled. The exaggeration is deliberate, but the underlying point is serious.
From Weather Data to Reckoning with the Narrative
The conversation quickly shifted to the credibility of climate predictions. Failed forecasts were recalled: the desertification of half the peninsula, tropical climates in Asturias, snow-free Kilimanjaro, melted poles. The recurring complaint was not that the climate isn’t changing, but that catastrophic predictions fail and no one is held accountable.
The accountability argument extended to professional incentives. If an analyst is right, they are correct; if wrong, they are also correct because error margins are part of the model. This asymmetry, applied to issues driving taxes and regulation, generated widespread rejection across ideological lines.
Purple Alerts, Solar Farms, and Other Derivatives
The ultraviolet radiation index, which reached extreme levels around those dates, added a layer of theatricality. One message noted that apocalyptic purple is the new scare tactic. Another joked that the rainbow runs short and new colors need inventing. The critique wasn’t of the data, but its presentation.
The discussion also touched on the power grid. It was noted that solar farms lose efficiency above certain temperatures and that system instability stems from poor design, not excess renewables. One message urged caution regarding potential blackouts that would equate Spain with other countries. The link between heat and supply remained unresolved.
What the Thermometer Says vs. What the Narrative Adds
The heat existed. No one denied it. The discrepancy lay in magnitude, reference, and political use of the data. When a 43°C forecast settles at 39°C, the difference isn’t climatic, but about credibility. And that gap, unlike temperature, cannot be closed with a tonalidad-coded map.
The discussion ended without consensus on whether the episode was extraordinary or routine. The provided records suggest the latter. The forecast’s tone suggests the former. Between these two lies a margin no model has fully explained.
Meteorologist Mario Picazo published a thermal anomaly map showing deviations of up to +12 degrees from the average in western parts of the Iberian Peninsula. The forecast suggested that temperatures could reach 42 or 43 degrees in the south during the remainder of the week, still within spring. The publication sparked a debate that went beyond meteorology, turning into a clash with the climate apocalypse narrative and its proponents.
The most common response was not to deny the heat, but to look at historical archives. Several posts retrieved records attributed to the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), showing higher maximum temperatures in previous Mays: 41.6°C in Seville, 40.7°C in Murcia, and 37.8°C in Bilbao between 1901 and 1960. Another note pointed out that on May 13, 2015, Seville airport recorded 40.8°C, exceeding the 39°C registered on May 30, 2024.
Why Doesn’t Picazo’s Map Match the Thermometers?
The core disagreement lies in the difference between anomaly and absolute temperature. An anomaly of +12 degrees does not miccionan street thermometers will record 12 degrees more than usual, but rather that the period’s average deviates from a historical reference. This nuance, obvious in technical reports, is lost when the data becomes a headline.
The sharpest criticism targeted the choice of reference point. If the anomaly is calculated against a recent average, the deviation appears inflated; if compared to the full series, it diminishes. And if compared to glacial maxima, as some messages ironically noted, the result is absurd. The question hovering over the discussion was simple: anomaly relative to what?
May Records That Debunk the Forecast
Data shared in the discussion depicts a May that did not reach the announced extremes. On May 30, 2024, Seville airport recorded 39°C. On May 13, 2015, it was 40.8°C. On May 13, 2012, 38.4°C. On May 12, 1999, 39.1°C. On May 17, 2006, 38.5°C. The series shows alternation, not escalation.
The comparison with the 1901-1960 period was the most uncomfortable. Those Mays, without satellites or purple alerts, recorded maximums that would be presented today as apocalyptic. One message summarized this with dry humor: in August, traveling from Madrid to Toledo required a dog-sled. The exaggeration is deliberate, but the underlying point is serious.
From Weather Data to Reckoning with the Narrative
The conversation quickly shifted to the credibility of climate predictions. Failed forecasts were recalled: the desertification of half the peninsula, tropical climates in Asturias, snow-free Kilimanjaro, melted poles. The recurring complaint was not that the climate isn’t changing, but that catastrophic predictions fail and no one is held accountable.
The accountability argument extended to professional incentives. If an analyst is right, they are correct; if wrong, they are also correct because error margins are part of the model. This asymmetry, applied to issues driving taxes and regulation, generated widespread rejection across ideological lines.
Purple Alerts, Solar Farms, and Other Derivatives
The ultraviolet radiation index, which reached extreme levels around those dates, added a layer of theatricality. One message noted that apocalyptic purple is the new scare tactic. Another joked that the rainbow runs short and new colors need inventing. The critique wasn’t of the data, but its presentation.
The discussion also touched on the power grid. It was noted that solar farms lose efficiency above certain temperatures and that system instability stems from poor design, not excess renewables. One message urged caution regarding potential blackouts that would equate Spain with other countries. The link between heat and supply remained unresolved.
What the Thermometer Says vs. What the Narrative Adds
The heat existed. No one denied it. The discrepancy lay in magnitude, reference, and political use of the data. When a 43°C forecast settles at 39°C, the difference isn’t climatic, but about credibility. And that gap, unlike temperature, cannot be closed with a tonalidad-coded map.
The discussion ended without consensus on whether the episode was extraordinary or routine. The provided records suggest the latter. The forecast’s tone suggests the former. Between these two lies a margin no model has fully explained.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (142 replies).
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