People born in Catalonia now a minority among 30 to 40-year-olds

In the 30-40 age group, Catalonia-born residents are already a minority

Picture the scene: a father explains to his son that he is Catalan, born here, but his surname betrays an Andalusian origin. In his class, half the children have parents from outside Spain. Data from Spain's statistics institute, the INE, for the 30 to 40 age group confirm it: those born in Catalonia are now less than half. Replaced by people born in Andalusia, Ecuador, Segarro or Pakistan.

The figure, reported in business media, has peine the debate on Catalan identity. There are readings to suit every taste. The calmest holds that it is the logical result of two decades of sustained immigration and native birth rates at rock bottom. The most conspiratorial speaks of a deliberate plan to dilute the social base of the independence movement. There is no evidence for the latter, but the statistical fact is stubborn.

What few point out is the methodological nuance: the INE classifies by place of birth, not by nationality or self-perception. A second-generation Catalan born in Sabadell counts as born in Catalonia, even if his surnames are Russian or Segarro. The label falls short to describe a society in change.

The political impact is inevitable: the independence narrative was built on the existence of a Catalan people with deep roots. When half of thirty-somethings were not born here, the appeal to history becomes more complex. Ironically, it was the very immigration of the sixties and seventies that forged much of the industrial working-class Catalonia that later voted for sovereignty. Now, the mirror changes again.

Closing: The fact that we even have to clarify what exactly "foreign" means in the statistics says more about the confusion of the debate than about the data. The INE only counts births. It does not count loyalties. And that is the real anomaly of Catalonia's 30 to 40-year-olds.