Aliança Catalana threatens to overtake ERC and Junts in Catalonia
A CEO survey gives Aliança Catalana 19-20 seats in Catalonia, tying with Junts and closing in on ERC. The independence movement is being reshaped to the right with an anti-immigration message.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Aliança Catalana closes in on second place and reshapes the independence landscape
A Junts voter in the Baix Empordà, fed up with Puigdemont's party's drift, is now looking at Aliança Catalana (AC). The latest survey by the CEO (Catalonia's official statistics institute), leaked this week, proves them right: AC wins between 19 and 20 seats, drawing level with Junts and just two or three behind ERC (22-23). The PSC remains the unbeatable leader with 38-40, but the real battle is for second place.
The surge coming from the right
Aliança Catalana, Sílvia Orriols's party, has burst onto the scene with a message combining hard-line independence and opposition to immigration, allowing it to siphon votes from both Junts and ERC. According to the poll, AC already leads Junts in direct voting intention, and vote transfer analysis suggests the exodus from the post-convergent space is accelerating. For ERC, the risk is that its republican profile loses appeal against a more radical, unapologetic option. "This puts pressure on Junts and is a butterfly effect for Moncloa," one analysis notes.
The economic factor: pensions and antiestéticar of collapse
AC's growth cannot be explained by independence fatigue alone. The party has managed to capitalize on pensioners' discontent —"all the pensioners voting en masse for the PSC to defend their pension," one observer quips— but also on voters who see immigration as a threat to the welfare state. The combination of social protectionism and identity politics gives it an economic profile that neither ERC nor Junts have managed to articulate. With the PSC dominating the center and the Spanish right fragmented (Vox 13-14, PP 12-13), AC finds a goldmine in abstention and disenchantment.
What now? The board is scrambled
If the poll were confirmed, the independence bloc would total 45-48 seats, far from an absolute majority, but with a new internal balance. Junts would lose its kingmaker role, and ERC would have to look to its right. For Illa's government, which enjoys a broad majority with PSC, ERC and Comuns (68 seats), the fragmentation of the independence movement gives it breathing room, but at the cost of radicalizing the opposition. The question is whether these numbers will hold until the next elections —still months, if not years, away— or whether, as some suspect, "the poll comes from Moncloa" and is part of a wear-down operation. The only certainty is that Aliança Catalana is no longer a footnote.
A Junts voter in the Baix Empordà, fed up with Puigdemont's party's drift, is now looking at Aliança Catalana (AC). The latest survey by the CEO (Catalonia's official statistics institute), leaked this week, proves them right: AC wins between 19 and 20 seats, drawing level with Junts and just two or three behind ERC (22-23). The PSC remains the unbeatable leader with 38-40, but the real battle is for second place.
The surge coming from the right
Aliança Catalana, Sílvia Orriols's party, has burst onto the scene with a message combining hard-line independence and opposition to immigration, allowing it to siphon votes from both Junts and ERC. According to the poll, AC already leads Junts in direct voting intention, and vote transfer analysis suggests the exodus from the post-convergent space is accelerating. For ERC, the risk is that its republican profile loses appeal against a more radical, unapologetic option. "This puts pressure on Junts and is a butterfly effect for Moncloa," one analysis notes.
The economic factor: pensions and antiestéticar of collapse
AC's growth cannot be explained by independence fatigue alone. The party has managed to capitalize on pensioners' discontent —"all the pensioners voting en masse for the PSC to defend their pension," one observer quips— but also on voters who see immigration as a threat to the welfare state. The combination of social protectionism and identity politics gives it an economic profile that neither ERC nor Junts have managed to articulate. With the PSC dominating the center and the Spanish right fragmented (Vox 13-14, PP 12-13), AC finds a goldmine in abstention and disenchantment.
What now? The board is scrambled
If the poll were confirmed, the independence bloc would total 45-48 seats, far from an absolute majority, but with a new internal balance. Junts would lose its kingmaker role, and ERC would have to look to its right. For Illa's government, which enjoys a broad majority with PSC, ERC and Comuns (68 seats), the fragmentation of the independence movement gives it breathing room, but at the cost of radicalizing the opposition. The question is whether these numbers will hold until the next elections —still months, if not years, away— or whether, as some suspect, "the poll comes from Moncloa" and is part of a wear-down operation. The only certainty is that Aliança Catalana is no longer a footnote.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (13 replies).
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