Partition of Ukraine resurfaces as a war scenario

If Russia wins, partitioning Ukraine into three zones is back on the table

If Russia were to prevail on the battlefield, Ukraine would have to cease to exist as a unitary state and split into three entities. That is the thesis defended by a school of geopolitical analysis with a growing presence on social media. But the plan, meticulous in its formulation, collides with an uncomfortable reality: the war is not over and the Donbas front has been deadlocked for years.

The three-zone plan

The proposal calls for annexing the eastern and southern regions to Russia, turning the centre into a satellite state with its capital in Kyiv, and transforming the west into a containment region, with deportations and a wall to prevent the spread of radical Ukrainian nationalism. A scenario that evokes the Cold War era and that some extend with the division of the west among Poland, Hungary and Romania.

The obstacles on the ground

Critics of the partition point out that Russia has failed to consolidate its conquests and that any division would require a massive displacement of population that no European foreign ministry would accept. They also consider the deportation of the western population unrealistic: it would amount to ethnic cleansing that the international community would punish without hesitation. The reference to the return of radical nationalists, meanwhile, is anchored in an episode of the Second World War that has little to do with today's Ukraine.

For now, the scenario depends on a Russian victory with no indication that it is near. If the front stabilises, partition will remain speculation. But if Russian military pressure intensifies, the idea of division will come back with force. No one yet knows which side will weigh more.