November 29 fills up with ballots, polls and bots

November 29 fills up with ballots, polls and bots

Are there elections or not? The question runs through every corner of the public conversation about November 29, and the answer depends on who you ask. The Government has "suddenly" tendered for election paperwork even though, according to the information released, no vote is in sight, while Pedro Sánchez insists that, with or without a new budget, there will be no elections until 2027. Two incompatible narratives coexisting on the same calendar.

What does seem beyond doubt is that the snap vote has awakened a machine that had long been dormant. As noted in the discussion, accounts and profiles defending minor right-wing parties that had vanished from previous elections, above all last year's general election, have reappeared. The daily creation of new bots, it is claimed, betrays the growing nervousness among the Government's ranks.

Digital ID and flexible doctrine

The technical flank has also moved. The Government is said to have invoked the "flexible doctrine" of the Electoral Board so that it would accept its version of digital identification, meaning that with the new digital ID card people could vote without any need to verify its technological authenticity. The report, published by El Debate, adds a layer of opacity to a process that was born amid mutual suspicion.

On top of that comes the offensive by VOX, which has requested an urgent opinion from the Venice Commission on overseas voting (the CERA vote) and the "reliability" of the electoral roll. Ignacio Garriga has said that November 29 is the "last chance" to take back Spain and has called for mobilisation against Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE. Abascal's party, moreover, is standing aside in several provinces for the Senate, a deal with the PP which, according to the estimates released, could deliver up to 140 new seats in the upper chamber.

What the polls say about November 29

Sociologists predict a massive right-wing mobilisation and turnout above 70% at the ballot box. It is the figure repeated most in these days' analyses. However, the PSOE believes it has managed to set the agenda after dissolving Parliament, although it admits the polls are not moving. Some argue that the campaign accident — unspecified — has completely changed the mood and that it will be very difficult to restore positivity in the middle of the fray.

The most optimistic calculation for the Government assumes the narrative machine holds; the pessimistic scenario starts from the idea that the war between Podemos and the Frente Amplio will cost it its last seats in several provinces. The Senate battle, meanwhile, is read as a political initiative by VOX to form its own parliamentary group and try to obtain a three-fifths majority to renew the Constitutional Court under Conde Pumpido.

The resignation nobody saw coming

Francisco Martín has resigned as Government Delegate in Madrid after being left off the PSOE's lists and in the middle of the crisis over the Sol encampment. The picture that emerges is of a man who celebrated Bildu and the boycott of La Vuelta and who leaves "leaving the Sol encampment uncleared". The real reason, according to published reports, is that the Madrid PSOE already had him blacklisted for supporting the 'rebel' Enma López.

The piece fits into a broader pattern: the internal war in the space to the left of the PSOE, the shuffling of names and the feeling that the zombie walks thanks to the premeditated strategy of Tezanos and Iván Redondo, who, according to a column in El Debate, is selling snake oil in his round of interviews. The irony is not mine: it is in the text.

The law that ties the next Government's hands

Beyond the noise, there is a fact with far-reaching consequences: Sánchez signed a law that obliges the next Government to cut pensions or raise taxes if it breaches the spending rule. In other words, the winner of November 29 inherits a budgetary straitjacket that conditions any electoral promise. That is the kind of fine print that never comes up at rallies.

And on the union front, voices against the strike warn: "We cannot become an actor in the election campaign." The working-hours reduction, meanwhile, remains frozen in anticipation of elections, according to Vozpópuli. The sabotage of Yolanda Díaz is, by now, just another piece on the board.

González's blank vote and ZP's abstention

Sánchez's "revolt" also has its internal cracks. The column in El Debate about Felipe González's blank vote and Zapatero's abstention suggests that sanchismo has already written off the former prime ministers, and that some are calling for their expulsion from the PSOE. González breaks the taboo — though he is not the first — of "I vote for my own no matter what they do". The phrase, reproduced verbatim, sums up the mood of part of the party.

With this outlook, the question is not who will win on November 29, but whether November 29 will exist as we know it. Ballots are being tendered, bots are multiplying and the polls are not moving. Everything adds up. Or not.