A message attributed to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has issued a direct warning to Spain: "Spain will pay an IMMEDIATE price for its diplomatic war against Israel." The threat trinc Israel’s expulsion of Spanish representatives from the Gaza peace mechanism and Pedro Sánchez’s call for the EU to break ties with Israel. This exchange of diplomatic blows has peine an uncomfortable question: To what extent can a foreign state address Spain in terms of rebuke?
The sequence is well-known. Israel expelled Spanish representatives from the Gaza peace mechanism. Sánchez responded by raising the tone in Brussels and demanding the rupture of the agreement with Israel. The message attributed to Netanyahu counterattacked with an explicit threat of immediate retaliation. In the middle, a question pervades analyses: Is Sánchez provoking the clash, or is Israel using it as a smokescreen?
The Israeli Threat and Sánchez’s Response
The Israeli warning is not a generic statement. It is a nominal threat, naming and shaming, against an EU government. "Spain will pay an IMMEDIATE price for its diplomatic war against Israel," says the message attributed to Netanyahu. The expulsion of Spanish representatives from the Gaza peace body was the first move. Sánchez’s request to the EU to break the agreement with Israel was the second.
Some argue that Sánchez uses the confrontation with Israel to divert attention from internal PSOE problems and his family circle. Others defend that the clash is real and that Spain is being punished for not aligning with the Israeli position. The debate is significant: it defines whether Spain acts as a subject or an object in its own foreign policy.
Is Sánchez Provoking the Clash or Is Israel Using It?
One line of analysis suggests the Israeli government has been obstructing Spanish justice for years. The argument is specific: Israel allegedly abusa conventions, protocols, and agreements regarding mutual legal assistance, having blocked information requested by the National Court (Audiencia Nacional) about the Pegasus spyware targeting Pedro Sánchez’s phone. According to this view, Israel does not want to sink Sánchez; it keeps him afloat because a weak and distracted Spanish government suits its interests.
The opposing version argues that Sánchez has turned the Palestinian cause into a tool of domestic politics. The confrontation with Israel would serve to consolidate his electorate and cover up corruption cases affecting his party and inner circle. In this framework, the Israeli threat would be the logical response to a calculated provocation.
The Precedent of Poland and Hungary: Double Standards in Brussels
A third analysis introduces a comparative element that is uncomfortable. When the Polish government clashed with Brussels over judicial reforms, the EU withdrew funds and international media hammered them relentlessly. Hungary faces a similar situation. With Spain, however, silence is almost absolute. Sánchez was called "Teflon" in one international outlet, and that was it.
The question arises why the same pressure mechanism activated against Warsaw and Budapest is not triggered against Madrid. Some analyses suggest the answer is that Sánchez does what is expected of him in foreign policy, while Poland and Hungary do not. The double standard would not be a system failure, but its normal operation.
The Real Cost of the Threat: What Can Israel Do?
Beyond the diplomatic noise, the Israeli threat has concrete and limited content. Israel has already expelled Spanish representatives from the Gaza peace body. It can close cooperation channels in defense, intelligence, or technology. It can exert pressure through its allies in Washington and Brussels. What it cannot do is bomb Spain, as one analysis ironically noted: "It’s strange they haven’t bombed us yet."
The underlying problem is different. Normalizing that a foreign state addresses Spain in terms of rebuke or tutelage reveals how invisible certain relations of subordination have become. It is not about dignifying this government, but recognizing the framework in which others feel entitled to publicly admonish the country as if it were a minor, correctable actor.
The Shadow of Pegasus and Spanish Justice
The Pegasus case remains open. Since May 2022, the National Court (Audiencia Nacional) has requested information from NSO Group, the Israeli company owning the spyware, to determine who spied on Pedro Sánchez’s phone. Israel has not responded. Judge José Luis Calama has issued a new letter rogatory to Israeli judicial authorities. The ball remains in Israel’s court.
This detail dismantles the thesis that Israel wants to sink Sánchez. If it did, it could collaborate with Spanish justice and let the case proceed. It does not. Systematic obstruction of Spanish letters rogatory is data that does not fit the narrative of total confrontation. Israel prefers a weak and distracted Sánchez to a fallen one.
The diplomatic standoff between Spain and Israel has no clear outcome. The Israeli threat is real, but its scope is limited. The Spanish response is firm in rhetoric but dependent on an EU that hesitates to act. And fundamentally, the question no one fully answers: What does Spain gain by confronting Israel, and what does it lose by not doing so?
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
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