Meteorologist points to system with tropical traits in the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean is warming up, and it's no longer just a low-pressure system

Meteorologist J.J. González Alemán has spent more than fifteen years studying tropical cyclones and, by his own admission, never thought he would say this: "A more in-depth study will be needed, but seeing the radar and satellite animations, it keeps crossing my mind more and more." The source of his concern is a system that, as of this discussion, showed characteristics typical of tropical cyclones in the middle of the Mediterranean. The researcher suggests the process may be changing, though he calls for more studies before drawing conclusions. The public discussion, however, has drifted elsewhere: toward whether this is new or was always there, toward who pays the bill, and toward whether the message is science or narrative.

What is a medicane and how does it differ from a hurricane?

The technical term is medicane, short for Mediterranean Hurricane. It is not an Atlantic hurricane transplanted: it is a system that, under very specific conditions, develops a warm core and a structure similar to that of a tropical cyclone. The key difference lies in the fuel and the calendar. A classic tropical cyclone feeds on very warm water and forms in summer and autumn in the Caribbean. A medicane forms when Mediterranean water is between 22 and 24 degrees and very cold air moves in at altitude. That is why they appear in October and November, not in August.

Some argue that calling what happens in the Mediterranean a hurricane is an exaggeration. The argument is that the formation is different, and so is the result. On the other side weighs the fact that sea temperature is rising and that this alters the behaviour of these systems. González Alemán himself suggests the process may be changing. The discussion is no small matter: on it depends whether we are talking about a recurring phenomenon or something new.

Warm water and cold air: the recipe that never fails

The mechanics are easy to state and complex to model. Warm water at the surface, cold air at high altitudes, and a thermal difference that generates instability. That combination is what produces medicanes. What has changed, according to the data the researcher works with, is the sea temperature. A warmer Mediterranean for more months widens the window in which these systems can form.

The debate over whether this is climate change or natural variability runs through the whole discussion. Some participants argue that summers have always been hot and that cyclones have always existed. Others respond that it is the frequency and intensity that are changing, not the existence of the phenomenon. Science, for now, calls for more studies. Politics, on the other hand, has already taken sides.

The cost of building where you shouldn't

One of the arguments with the most traction is the urban planning one. It is pointed out that many of the areas hit by floods and storms are built on places that were historically left unoccupied: dry riverbeds, seasonal streams, low-lying areas by the sea. The example cited is Torrent, in Valencia, whose very name invites reflection. The underlying idea is that the problem is not only meteorological but also one of land-use planning.

This point generates unexpected consensus among positions that otherwise do not align. Those who deny anthropogenic climate change and those who defend it usually agree that building has been done badly. The difference lies in the conclusion: some call for adapting infrastructure, others for rethinking the urban growth model. A full calculation of potential damage, broken down by area, is the kind of material that fuels this debate.

From degrowth to taxes: the political noise

The conversation often drifts onto fiscal ground. CO2 taxes, plastic bags, bottle caps that can't be lost and deposit return machines are all mentioned. The implicit question is whether all that regulatory effort serves any purpose or is simply a way of raising revenue under an environmental pretext. It is an old debate, but it resurfaces every time there is an extreme weather event.

Distrust of scientists also appears. People ask whether they are independent or state-funded, whether they request funding to keep studying or whether there is really something behind it all. It is the usual noise. What does not change is the data: the Mediterranean is warming and the systems that form over it are changing. The open question is whether preparedness will arrive before the next event.