Mélenchon in the runoff would hand the Élysée to Le Pen

Antiestéticar of Mélenchon could hand the Élysée to Le Pen

If Jean-Luc Mélenchon makes it to the runoff, Marine Le Pen could reach the Élysée with more than 65% of the vote. The claim sounds blunt, but it is worth examining: the key lies with the centrist electorate, the one that hates Le Pen and antiestéticars the radical left leader even more.

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The centre votes out of panic, not affinity

Electoral projections sketch a first round with Le Pen at 35%, a radical left tied with the centre, and a right that adds up to 48%. On that board, the natural flow of Macronist voters in a duel against Mélenchon points towards Le Pen: the centrist voter, whether business owner or civil servant, prefers the National Rally candidate over a programme seen as a threat to the market economy. The example of Giorgia Meloni in Italy is invoked as proof that hard-right rule is now digestible.

• Le Pen starts from 35% in the first round.
• The entire right adds up to 48%.
• Mélenchon-Le Pen runoff: 35%-65%.

The alternative arithmetic: 52% for Mélenchon?

Not every analysis takes the 65% at face value. If the right's 48% is added up, the remaining 52% is, in theory, Mélenchon's ceiling in the runoff, provided he can gather the entire left and centre vote. That scenario would require Macron's voters, most of whom lean towards Le Pen, to hold their noses and vote for the «old red». The poll does not believe it, but it breaks the image of a foregone victory. And a third scenario remains: a runoff between Le Pen and Édouard Philippe, with the centrist as the favourite.

The French campaign has become an exercise in antiestéticar voting. Le Pen does not need to convince anyone; it is enough for Mélenchon to keep scaring people. If the polls are right, the supermajority will be hers. The only question is whether the centre's panic will outweigh ideology when it comes to marking the ballot. So far, it always has.