Mary Tudor's alternate history: an empire that never was

Mary Tudor's alternate history: an empire that never was

If Mary Tudor had not died in 1558, England would be a Catholic country today and probably part of the Spanish empire. At least, that is what an AI-generated analysis claims, reigniting the historical debate. The scenario, however, collides with the fiscal and military reality of the sixteenth century.

According to the AI model, the queen would have had time to conceive an heir with Philip II, displacing Elizabeth I and consolidating Catholicism in England. An Anglo-Spanish colonial empire under the Habsburgs would have formed, and the Protestant Reformation would have weakened. But critics point out that Philip II was already managing an over-indebted empire and multiple war fronts. An English heir would have been a burden, not an advantage. Moreover, the Netherlands rebelled over fiscal and local autonomy issues, not only religious ones, and English support came late and out of self-interest.

The discussion inevitably drifts toward comparing colonial models. While some argue that Spain treated the natives better through the Laws of the Indies and allowed intermarriage, others recall that the encomienda was a system of forced exploitation, that the American universities indoctrinated students, and that indigenous people had no real access to them. The Valladolid debates (1550-1551) were a unique case of imperial self-criticism, but they did not prevent oppression.

The unresolved question is whether a Catholic heir would really have changed the course of the Reformation or whether, like so many alternate histories, it underestimates the inertia of historical processes.