Magyar wins in Hungary, but the forum doubts the official narrative

Magyar wins in Hungary, but the forum doubts the official narrative

Péter Magyar has won the elections in Hungary, and the EU celebrates the end of sixteen years of Orbán. The problem is that, according to the analysis opening the debate, the winner voted the same as Orbán on foreign and migration policy, and comes from the same party. The question running through the analysis is not who has won, but whether anything has truly changed.

Who is Péter Magyar and why does Brussels applaud him

Magyar is not a classic opposition figure. He emerged from the Fidesz apparatus, Orbán's party, and his program, according to the analysis opening the debate, is 'Orbán without corruption.' He maintains rejection of the European migration pact, voted against the loan to Ukraine, and does not plan to reverse energy ties with Russia. With this resume, the EU and several European governments have congratulated him as if he had won something else. Something doesn't add up.

The key lies in the funds. According to circulating material, Brussels had conditioned the release of 18 billion euros on the victory of his 'pawn' Magyar, money withheld from Orbán for not accepting the migrant distribution plan. With Magyar, the faucet opens. With Orbán, it remained closed. No need to be a genius to understand why Von der Leyen smiles.

The borrowed vote argument and the paradox of the Hungarian left

There is a more nuanced reading. Magyar won with a large borrowed vote from liberals, the left, and greens, and the Hungarian left was left with zero deputies. This loan has an expiration date. Those who voted for him did not do so out of love for his program, but to oust Orbán. Governing with this borrowed support is another matter.

Weighing against him is the argument that Magyar has already shown signs that do not fit the Orbán-like profile. He appointed a gender equality activist as Education Minister, placed his brother-in-law as Justice Minister, and announced that the Roma anthem will sound alongside the national anthem at the opening of the Assembly. These are symbolic gestures, but gestures nonetheless. The question is whether they are cosmetics or substance.

What the history of converts says and why no one trusts him

Skepticism has precedents. Adolfo Suárez came from the National Movement, Juan Carlos swore to the Fundamental Laws of Francoism, Gorbachev was general secretary of the CPSU, and Yeltsin was another big fish in the system. Some fulfilled their promises, others did not. The lesson drawn from the analysis is that coming from the apparatus guarantees nothing, either way.

The institutional reaction is the best thermometer. Netanyahu thanked Orbán for his friendship and support for Israel. Sánchez, Macron, and Von der Leyen congratulated Magyar. When both the outgoing and incoming leaders receive praise from opposing sides, something is moving. Or not. Time will tell.

Magyar's warning to Brussels that no one cites

Magyar has not been slow to distance himself. In his first message after the victory, he made it clear that he intends to set his red lines with the EU. He is not a Brussels employee, although, according to circulating material, Brussels paid for his campaign with the promise of funds. This ambiguity is his asset and his risk.

The scenario sketched by the most pessimistic analysis is one of a Hungary entering the European orbit through the debt door, with growing dependence on funds that then condition policies. The most optimistic sees a country regaining weight in Europe without renouncing its identity. In between, a country that has run for sixteen years with one course and now changes pilots without changing the map.

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What if the change was only in name?