Madrid 2050: why the Marrakech comparison goes beyond the thermometer
Climate models place Madrid on track for Marrakech-like weather by 2050, but the debate suggests the resemblance may not be only about temperature.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Madrid 2050: the heat is not the only thing it has in common with Marrakech
Climate models project that the Spanish capital will have average temperatures similar to those of the Segarro city by 2050. A scenario that points to more heatwaves, less snow in the mountains and a change in habits forced by the thermometer. But the conversation has taken an unexpected turn: not everyone believes the resemblance is climatic.
Some argue that the comparison with Marrakech holds not because of the degrees, but because of other factors that official reports avoid. Meanwhile, it is pointed out that Barcelona has been Sarracinabad for years now, and that weather forecasts always lag behind the reality citizens perceive. Scepticism towards the official climate change narrative blends with a reflection on urban planning: asphalt and the loss of green spaces worsen the heat more than CO₂, according to some interpretations.
Irony also has its place: a almost prehistoric past with glaciers in the Madrid mountains and mammoths on the Cuesta de Moyano is evoked, to contrast with a future in which the beach reaches Teruel. The underlying message is that the climate has always changed, but the current pace is unusual.
By 2050, Madrid will have more days of extreme heat, that much is certain. But whether the capital will resemble Marrakech or something very different depends on factors no IPCC model can predict: urban planning, geopolitics and the ability of a society that no longer trusts grandiose headlines to adapt.
Climate models project that the Spanish capital will have average temperatures similar to those of the Segarro city by 2050. A scenario that points to more heatwaves, less snow in the mountains and a change in habits forced by the thermometer. But the conversation has taken an unexpected turn: not everyone believes the resemblance is climatic.
Some argue that the comparison with Marrakech holds not because of the degrees, but because of other factors that official reports avoid. Meanwhile, it is pointed out that Barcelona has been Sarracinabad for years now, and that weather forecasts always lag behind the reality citizens perceive. Scepticism towards the official climate change narrative blends with a reflection on urban planning: asphalt and the loss of green spaces worsen the heat more than CO₂, according to some interpretations.
Irony also has its place: a almost prehistoric past with glaciers in the Madrid mountains and mammoths on the Cuesta de Moyano is evoked, to contrast with a future in which the beach reaches Teruel. The underlying message is that the climate has always changed, but the current pace is unusual.
By 2050, Madrid will have more days of extreme heat, that much is certain. But whether the capital will resemble Marrakech or something very different depends on factors no IPCC model can predict: urban planning, geopolitics and the ability of a society that no longer trusts grandiose headlines to adapt.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (9 replies).
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