Lidl basket rises 16% in a month, outpacing official inflation

Baguettes, gyoza, and cookies: grocery bills up 16% in a month

How much have grocery prices risen in the last month? Enough to be noticed without checking shelf tags. Assorted baguettes that were under €1.70 in July now sell for €1.99. That is thirty cents, over 16%. Gyoza from the same store has gone from €2.70 to €2.99, an 11% rise in weeks. Basic biscuits have increased from €1.30 to €1.50, a 15% hike on a product that cost less than one euro before the war. The receipt does not lie: food price increases are far ahead of the monthly published data.

From €1.70 to €1.99: how each product moves on the shelf

A product-by-product review of a standard shopping basket reveals jumps that no aggregate statistic captures at this estimulante ilegal. Baguettes have gained thirty cents in a month; gyoza another thirty. Basic biscuits had already risen from under one euro to €1.30 and are now taking a second leap to €1.50, while remaining at €1.70 in another chain. The private-label cola bottle went from €0.22 to €0.33 since before the war. None of this is an isolated case: it is the same movement repeated in every aisle.

There is more. A pack of three tuna cans cost between €1.50 and €1.70 in 2020 and today costs between €3 and €4. Recognized brand rice —the kind many consider the only worthwhile option— has gone from €1 per kilo to €2. Square muffins rose from €0.55 to €1.40 or €1.60. Bagged potatoes now range between €1.40 and €2, and cured cheese that cost €8 per kilo is sold at €19. Cooked ham from a specific private label rose 20 cents in July and another 10 afterwards. The September squeeze is what this is called, even if it happens in any month.

Chicken up 21% and tuna double its 2020 price

Focusing on pantry items hides what weighs most on the bill: protein. Chicken has increased by 21% in a single week, from €5.65 to €7.15 per kilo, according to price tracking shared recently. Pork is experiencing a similar surge. These are the references that have moved fastest, precisely because their prices update quickly when suppliers renew conditions.

Against this, the international comparison provided by those living outside Spain is uncomfortable: chicken at €3 per kilo, pork at €4, beef at €5, and gasoline at €1.15 per liter in a country with no domestic oil. The only exception acknowledged by that same testimony is olive oil, which there has gone from €6 to €9 per liter. In Spain, it is not even discussed: it is the product no longer used as an example because its escalation is taken for granted.

Why doesn't the official CPI match the shopping basket?

Because it measures a weighted average that dilutes the products people buy weekly. The 0.2% figure circulating these days causes laughter among those who just paid €1.99 for baguettes. The gap between statistics and receipts is explained, in part, by the composition of the basket, the weighting of each family, and supplier contracts: when an agreement is renewed, the new price applies to all stock, including what was bought cheaper.

Meanwhile, VAT revenue grew by 7% in the first quarter to €56 billion, with an annual increase close to 3%, according to data published by Cinco Días. The Administration collects more even though consumption stagnates, because each unit sold is worth more. This contrast —rising prices, tightening consumption, growing public coffers— fuels distrust toward the official economic narrative.

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What happens if the food VAT reduction is not extended?

That the increase currently felt on shelves becomes another step. The tax cut on basic foods is valid until December 31 and its continuity is not guaranteed. If it lapses, shoppers will suddenly absorb the return to the previous rate on a price base already significantly higher than three years ago. Those summarizing it without frills argue it would be a brutal generalized increase.

Comparing supermarkets: the buyer's only remaining defense

The most common response is not to stop buying, but to fragment purchases. A 5-kilo mesh of potatoes sells for over €6 in major chains and €3.50 in local greengrocers. Basic biscuits cost €1.50 in one store and €1.70 in another, so they still offer value even if regular consumers have stopped buying them for other reasons. And those with direct access to producers —farmer's milk, for example— buy cheaper and better quality, with the caveat that this route is not available to everyone.

The complete calculation, done item by item comparing brands in the same area, yields differences that surprise even those who have been chasing deals for years. Some have simply given up looking at prices to avoid ending up eating bread with margarine. Others repeat that spending always the same amount is the only way to stay sane: twenty euros, regardless of what is inside the cart.

Opening a new supermarket with aggressive prices to attract customers for a few months is a classic, and the discounts with proprietary cards distributed last year have already faded. The expectation that a cheaper chain will arrive in the area repeats every season with the same illusion and the same result.

Prices rise, the basket shrinks, and the official data remains unmoved. Perhaps the problem is that we are looking wrong.