Le Pen threatens the Élysée with no credible economic plan

Le Pen threatens to take the Élysée with no economic plan that adds up

Marine Le Pen has staged her latest battle in a runoff against Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Her supporters make no secret of holding their noses as they do it: they prefer the National Rally leader to the radical left. History, however, teaches that forecasts fail when the economy does not cooperate. And France has long been missing that cooperation.

The Italian mirror that frightens Brussels

The precedent everyone cites is Giorgia Meloni. She came to power with assault rhetoric and ended up governing with one hand tied by the deficit and the other by the markets. It is taken for granted that Le Pen would suffer the same syndrome: the radical program goes into the drawer when investors demand guarantees. The question is whether France, with a welfare state more generous than Italy's, can afford the same experiment.

The third generation, the great absent from the debate

One of the issues running through the conversation is that of the millions of descendants of immigrants. Some argue that this group is the main unresolved social challenge and that no political force has put forward a serious plan for jobs, housing and integration. The harshest responses —the idea that they should not reach the fourth generation— reveal that it is treated as a threat, not as a public policy.

If Le Pen wins, she will find a country she does not recognize. If she loses, the system will go on ignoring what made her grow. Reconquest, on paper, is always easier than governing.