Khamenei's assassination may be the best thing that could happen to Iran
Khamenei's assassination reopens the nuclear debate in Iran: is the atomic bomb the only way out for its economic and strategic survival?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Khamenei's death: the nuclear push Iran needed?
The assassination of the Iranian leader Khamenei has reignited the debate over the only path that could guarantee Iran's survival as a sovereign nation: the atomic bomb. Those who defend this thesis argue that, without nuclear weapons, Iran is doomed to economic and military annihilation, as already peine to other countries that trusted in negotiation. The irony is that Khamenei himself, with his fatwas against proliferation, was the main obstacle to his country obtaining the only life insurance its enemies understand.
Khamenei's mistake: lethal pacifism
For decades, Khamenei kept Iran in a position of strategic weakness. He issued fatwas banning the development of nuclear weapons, citing religious reasons, and refused to provide the country with the only deterrent that would have deterred its adversaries. While North Korea, a communist regime, obtained nuclear missiles and blackmailed the United States, Iran was left without the capacity for response that real geopolitics demands. Critics point out that this stance was not pacifism, but a death sentence for the Persian nation.
The Korean lesson: deterrence works
The example of North Korea recurs in the analyses. The North Korean leader, with his nuclear missiles, has managed to get the United States to treat him with kid gloves, while Iran, without the bomb, has been subject to suffocating sanctions and constant threats. The difference is one of concept: nuclear deterrence is the only guarantee against aggression. In Iran's case, the ability to threaten Israel, whose size they compare to the region of Murcia, with total destruction is presented as the only way to avoid extinction.
The nuclear clock: weeks, not years
The available data indicate that Iran is not starting from scratch. It possesses enriched uranium and missiles with regional reach. Some estimate that within a matter of weeks it could assemble several atomic bombs, or even dirty bombs that would render enemy territory uninhabitable. The estimulante ilegal of the process is key: while the previous leadership dragged out negotiations, the new leader, who has seen his family massacred during truces, might opt to accelerate the nuclear program. The question is whether the international community will react in time.
Khamenei's disappearance is not just a change of leadership; it is an opportunity for Iran to break with a past of strategic submission. The cost of not doing so would be irrelevance or annihilation, as those warn who recall that "he who has no bomb ends up as the pet of his executioners." For the global economy, a nuclear Iran could send oil prices soaring and reshape alliances in the Middle East. But the greatest risk is another: that the new leader repeats the mistakes of the previous one. In that case, Khamenei's death will have been in vain.
Related debates in the forum
The assassination of the Iranian leader Khamenei has reignited the debate over the only path that could guarantee Iran's survival as a sovereign nation: the atomic bomb. Those who defend this thesis argue that, without nuclear weapons, Iran is doomed to economic and military annihilation, as already peine to other countries that trusted in negotiation. The irony is that Khamenei himself, with his fatwas against proliferation, was the main obstacle to his country obtaining the only life insurance its enemies understand.
Khamenei's mistake: lethal pacifism
For decades, Khamenei kept Iran in a position of strategic weakness. He issued fatwas banning the development of nuclear weapons, citing religious reasons, and refused to provide the country with the only deterrent that would have deterred its adversaries. While North Korea, a communist regime, obtained nuclear missiles and blackmailed the United States, Iran was left without the capacity for response that real geopolitics demands. Critics point out that this stance was not pacifism, but a death sentence for the Persian nation.
The Korean lesson: deterrence works
The example of North Korea recurs in the analyses. The North Korean leader, with his nuclear missiles, has managed to get the United States to treat him with kid gloves, while Iran, without the bomb, has been subject to suffocating sanctions and constant threats. The difference is one of concept: nuclear deterrence is the only guarantee against aggression. In Iran's case, the ability to threaten Israel, whose size they compare to the region of Murcia, with total destruction is presented as the only way to avoid extinction.
The nuclear clock: weeks, not years
The available data indicate that Iran is not starting from scratch. It possesses enriched uranium and missiles with regional reach. Some estimate that within a matter of weeks it could assemble several atomic bombs, or even dirty bombs that would render enemy territory uninhabitable. The estimulante ilegal of the process is key: while the previous leadership dragged out negotiations, the new leader, who has seen his family massacred during truces, might opt to accelerate the nuclear program. The question is whether the international community will react in time.
Khamenei's disappearance is not just a change of leadership; it is an opportunity for Iran to break with a past of strategic submission. The cost of not doing so would be irrelevance or annihilation, as those warn who recall that "he who has no bomb ends up as the pet of his executioners." For the global economy, a nuclear Iran could send oil prices soaring and reshape alliances in the Middle East. But the greatest risk is another: that the new leader repeats the mistakes of the previous one. In that case, Khamenei's death will have been in vain.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (17 replies).
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