Israel's long-term viability questioned in forum debate

Israel faces debate over its long-term viability

The discussion on Israel's future is no longer taboo. Recurring geopolitical analyses suggest the country faces a perfect storm: a demographic crisis threatening its economic model, questioning of its military invulnerability, and growing dependence on an ally, the United States, that is looking inward. The question is no longer whether Israel can win a war, but whether it can survive as a project.

This analysis starts from an uncomfortable thesis: Israel is largely a Western society transplanted to the Middle East. A significant portion of its population holds dual citizenship and enjoys a standard of living that would allow them to rebuild their lives elsewhere. The lingering question is whether, facing prolonged conflict and rising insecurity, this population would choose to stay or pack up and leave.

Economic dependence on Palestinian labor

One of the strongest arguments circulating is demographic. Israel faces a sustainability problem with its pension system. With an aging population and a birth rate insufficient to sustain the welfare state, the country needs workers. The paradox is that these workers are largely Palestinians. If Israel expels or kills them, it triggers a major economic problem. Attempts have been made to bring Indian workers, but the solution is temporary: those workers will return to their country and take their contributions with them.

The conclusion is uncomfortable for the official narrative: Israel cannot afford to do without the Palestinian population. It needs their workforce to pay pensions for its elderly. This is a mutual dependency that no military operation can resolve.

The end of the military invulnerability myth

The second major pillar that is shaking is the military one. For decades, Israel has cultivated the image of an invincible army capable of deterring any enemy. That image has cracked. Missile attacks have shown there is no infallible shield. The Israeli population has experienced scenes of collective hysteria in bomb shelters. And, more seriously, the country has had to rely on its US ally to defend it from a conflict that, according to this thesis, it provoked itself.

The consequence is clear: if Israel is no longer invulnerable, the calculation for many of its citizens changes. The decision to stay or go ceases to be ideological and becomes a matter of personal and family security.

The US factor: an ally in retreat

The third element is geopolitical. Unconditional US support for Israel has an expiration date. American power is in relative decline and has its own internal problems. US public opinion, especially among younger people, is tiring of a conflict they don't understand and which doesn't benefit them. If the US reduces its support, Israel is exposed to a coalition of regional enemies with resources and motivation to attack it.

Some argue that Israel could repeat the fate of the Soviet Union: an economic and social collapse caused by an unsustainable arms race. Others believe the country has enough resources to hold out. But the fact nobody disputes is that, without the US, Israel's room for maneuver shrinks drastically.

Diaspora and dual citizenship: the escape valve

An element that distinguishes Israel from other countries in conflict is its diaspora. Millions of Jews worldwide have the right to Israeli citizenship. Many of them hold passports from other countries and possess educational levels that allow them to work anywhere. If the situation deteriorates, this population has an easy exit. This is not speculation: it is a demographic and legal reality.

The question is how many of those dual-citizenship holders would choose to stay in a besieged country. History suggests that in situations of prolonged crisis, elites and middle classes tend to emigrate. If this happens, Israel would lose part of its most valuable human capital.

---

The analysis hits a wall: nobody knows what pain threshold Israeli society is willing to endure. History is full of countries that seemed on the brink of collapse yet survived, and others that disintegrated without anyone seeing it coming. The only certainty is that the narrative of an invincible and eternal Israel no longer holds.