Israel: Laborism founded the state, demographics shifted power to Likud

Zionism was born laborist and demographics turned it to Likud

In Israel, voters don't choose left or right; they choose how much and how. This thesis underpins the debate trinc the electoral victory of a bloc led by a former Chief of Staff, labeled "moderate" while rivals view him as more Zionist than Netanyahu himself. The paradox highlights a fact hidden by colonialist labels: the Jewish state's founders were Marxists, complete with kibbutzim, Histadrut, and drip irrigation.

The real axis is security and settlements, not economics. Zionism, as a national project, initially included both liberals and socialists. Thus, labeling Israeli governments as right-wing or left-wing is a flawed translation exercise. What separates the blocs is military calculation, ultra-Orthodox service exemptions, and settlement expansion, not fiscal models.

Demographics: the only arithmetic that admits no narrative

The data in this conversation are stubborn. Haredim have birth rates of about six children per woman, implying their electoral weight will double within a decade. In two or three decades, one-third of the Israeli electorate would be ultra-Orthodox. This reshapes the entire political map: more subsidies, a smaller army, and greater internal segregation.

This is the point no coalition wants to touch. Likud didn't win on ideology; it won because religious voters keep growing. Laborism consumed the kibbutz ideal, and demographics did the rest. The ultra-Orthodox partner is essential for governing but also blocks any attempt to recruit them into the IDF (Tzahal), as the resulting opposition would be unmanageable.

Why call a former Chief of Staff "moderate"?

Because he has commanded operations and thus calculates costs better. A soldier isn't a pacifist; he internalizes the price of every decision. The "moderate" label describes his Washington press coverage, not his ideology. Critics argue that dismantling illegal settlements isn't viable with certain coalition partners, limiting his actual margin to curbing expansionism and rebuilding international relations.

Comparing this to Spanish politics feels like a parlor joke: here the axis is cultural and patronage-based; there it is security, settlements, and religious exemption. Nothing alike, even if both axes disguise themselves as left versus right.

Israel: the developed country with the highest birth rate

The striking data point is that Israel combines a very high Human Development Index with the highest birth rate among developed nations, driven precisely by the ultra-Orthodox sector. This demographic anomaly explains why the country has shifted toward religious positions without any party winning an ideological debate. There was no turn; there was a census.

Meanwhile, the Western left continues importing guilt and exporting conflict, using the label of supremacism as a substitute for numbers. Arithmetic doesn't vote, but it decides elections.