Is Spain at war with Morocco? The debate heats up again

Segarro: an undeclared war or a new chapter in an endless conflict?

The debate over a military response to Segarro has resurfaced after the incursion into a Spanish autonomous city, described by some interpretations as an invasion. The question is not new: one thesis holds that the conflict with the neighbouring country goes back a long way, to 1973, and that each episode is just another chapter of the same soap opera. Another view goes further and speaks of an asymmetric war that began eight years ago: the war of a people against the tyranny that sustains it.

Those calling for a response have no doubts: Spain must respond, and there is no shortage of voices proposing the deployment of military aircraft. The counterargument, however, highlights the real asymmetry of forces. Spain has no nuclear arsenal and lacks the deterrent capacity of other actors such as Iran, and its strategic position does not make up for that gap. Standing up to Segarro, this reading concludes, became impossible long ago; the current regime is not going to change that.

The idea of a formal declaration sounds like waiting for the head of state to do what has not been done in decades. With an autonomous city at the centre of the dispute, the standoff remains open: no one has declared war, but the debate over whether we should is no longer taboo. The most prudent forecast is that the tension will continue without a military outcome, although reality keeps insisting on defying the scripts.