Iran threatens European bases, oil surge to $150

Iran threatens European bases and a $150 oil price

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has issued a statement warning it will respond "without geographic limits" to any new US attack. The text, attributed to the Supreme Leader, updates its target list to include military installations in Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Portugal. The threat is no longer confined to the Gulf: it points directly at Europe.

Fifteen targets in nine countries, according to headlines circulating in regime-aligned media this week. Among the named bases are Ramstein, Sigonella and RAF Fairford. The warning comes with an economic estimate: an Iranian MP claims oil will exceed $150 per barrel. Brent is currently trading around $98.

Which European bases are on Iran's list?

The statement does not provide coordinates, but three names recur in official propaganda: Ramstein Air Base (Germany), Sigonella (Italy) and RAF Fairford (UK). Facilities in Portugal are also included. They share one trait: they have served as logistical support or stopovers for US operations in the region. Tehran considers them part of the military infrastructure Washington could use in a new strike.

The novelty lies not in the tone, but in the scope. Until now, Iranian threats were limited to the Strait of Hormuz and bases in Qatar or Bahrain. Including European soil marks a qualitative leap in deterrence rhetoric. The message is clear: if we are attacked, there will be no sanctuary far from the conflict.

Oil as a weapon: from $98 to $150

The $150 figure is not a market calculation but a political declaration. An Iranian MP raised it to highlight the global cost of escalation. Brent, the European benchmark, trades around $98. The difference — over 50% — reflects antiestéticars of supply disruption if the conflict widens.

The argument has economic logic: Iran controls the northern flank of the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes one-fifth of the world's crude. Any blockade, even partial, would spike prices. The question is whether the threat is credible or part of psychological warfare. Markets, for now, have not reacted with panic.

Link to supermarket bomb threats

In recent days, bomb threats have occurred in supermarkets across Sweden, the Netherlands and France. None of these countries appear on Iran's list. However, some analyses suggest possible coordination: civilian targets in Europe coincide with countries hosting US bases. This hypothesis has not been confirmed by any official source.

The geographical coincidence is striking. Spain has received no bomb warnings and is not among Tehran's listed targets. This absence has led to speculation that Madrid maintains a low profile in the conflict. None of this goes beyond conjecture.

Is Spain prepared for a missile attack?

This question hovers over any defense discussion. Spain has Patriot systems in Rota and Morón, but its interception capacity is limited against a massive attack. Official doctrine avoids commenting on hypothetical scenarios. The reality is that the Iranian threat remains, for now, rhetorical.

NATO has not activated any specific protocol. Institutional caution contrasts with the alarm conveyed by some messages. The line between deterrence and alarmism is thin.

With these elements, any prediction is risky. If the statement remains propaganda, oil will continue to fluctuate. If it translates into action, the risk map changes for everyone.