IMF says Spain's economy will outgrow the US and triple France and Italy in 2026

The IMF projects Spain's economy will grow **2.5%** in 2026, two tenths more than the **United States** and well above **France** and **Italy**. The institution itself attributes part of that dynamism to the sharp population increase, which inflates GDP without household income rising in the same proportion.

Spain's economy will grow **2.5%** in 2026. That is what the **International Monetary Fund** says in its world economic outlook report, which raises the previous forecast by four tenths. For context: the **United States** will grow **2.3%**, the **Eurozone** **1.1%**, **France** **0.4%** and **Italy** **0.8%**. Spain not only leads the group of major developed economies, it nearly triples French growth.

## What the IMF report actually says

The document notes that eurozone expansion is driven by "a very strong recovery in **Ireland** and sustained dynamism in **Spain**". The rest of the countries show stable or outright weak growth. **Germany** rises to **1.3%** for 2026, an improvement of six tenths, but still far from the Spanish figure.

For 2027 things moderate. The IMF leaves its projections unchanged and Spain would grow **1.8%**, a slowdown that would bring it closer to the eurozone average, forecast at **1.2%** for that year. Not a collapse, but a return to normality.

There is one figure worth keeping in view: the IMF itself links the strong macroeconomic moment to population growth. Hundreds of thousands of immigrants join the labour force every year and that creates a larger economy. Larger, yes. But the report notes that it does not necessarily create more prosperity for each citizen in the same proportion.

## The role of demographics in growth

Spain had **49,801,559 inhabitants** as of 1 July 2026, according to provisional figures from the **National Statistics Institute** (Instituto Nacional de Estadística). That is a record high. Of that figure, **7,437,543** are foreign nationals and **10,291,807** were born outside Spain, including those who have already acquired Spanish citizenship. The number of households stands at **19,874,860**.

The calculation made in some analyses is simple: if around **1,200,000** people arrive each year in a country of nearly **50 million**, the population increase exceeds **2%** a year. Those people consume water, electricity and food, use public transport and, when they find jobs, produce goods and services. All of that adds to GDP. It is not magic or an economic miracle: it is demographic arithmetic.

The contrast with its neighbours is striking. The population of developed countries that control their borders is stagnant or shrinking. **France**, **Italy** and **Germany** lack that demographic engine, or have it to a much lesser degree. Hence their growth rates of **0.4%**, **0.8%** and **1.3%** respectively.

## Inflation and unemployment: the fine print of optimism

Not all is good news. The IMF has worsened its inflation projections for Spain: it adds **0.7 points** to the 2026 forecast, to **3.7%**. For 2027 it expects a moderation to **2.7%**. In the eurozone, inflation rises half a point in 2026 to **3.1%** and six tenths in 2027 to **2.8%**.

The report warns that core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, will not return to **2%** in the eurozone until 2028. That means monetary policy will be less expansionary than expected and interest rates could rise. In other words: more expensive money for longer.

Unemployment is another weak point. Spain remains stuck with an unemployment rate barely below **10%** throughout the forecast period: **9.8%** in both 2026 and 2027. The eurozone will hold at **6.3%** both years. In other words, Spain grows faster than anyone but still has double the unemployment of its partners.

## France stalls, Germany breathes

The IMF cuts the growth forecast for **France** by two tenths for both 2026 (**0.4%**) and 2027 (**0.7%**). It is the economy faring worst among the eurozone's big players. **Germany** improves six tenths in 2026 to **1.3%** and one tenth in 2027 to **1.1%**. **Italy** gains three tenths in 2026 to **0.8%** and one tenth in 2027 to **0.6%**.

The report highlights the region's resilience in the face of a **Middle East** conflict that keeps dragging on. The second quarter was better than the first, when the European economy stagnated. But the recovery is uneven and Spain, for now, leads the pack.

The question hanging over all this is whether Spanish growth will hold once the demographic engine cools. Because if GDP rises mainly because more people are working and consuming, the day fewer people arrive, growth will look much more like France's or Italy's. And on that day, according to the IMF's own projections, Spain would grow **1.8%** in 2027. Less rocket, more bicycle.