Hypergamy blamed for Spain's low birth rate, but is it the real cause?

Is Spanish women's hypergamy – the preference for higher-status partners – the real reason Spain's birth rate is so low, or just a convenient way to avoid talking about wages and housing? The most uncomfortable finding in today's economic analysis is that fertility is not falling because of a single factor, but because of an explosive combination of expectations, job insecurity and cultural change. And the blame is distributed very unevenly.

The hypergamy thesis: a bar that excludes the average man

The harshest diagnosis holds that Spanish women have raised the bar for what they consider an acceptable partner. They concentrate their preferences on high-status men, the "alphas", while the average man is left out of the dating market. The consequence, according to this reading, is slower matching, and reproduction, which depends on women, is delayed or never happens at all. Some put numbers on it: the blame would be 70% female and 30% male, because reproduction remains a female prerogative. Others qualify this: the problem is not women, but an infantilised society that prefers "living experiences" to taking on responsibilities.

The arithmetic of precariousness

Against that reading, the arithmetic is stubborn. The scenario that would fill Spain with children involves civil servants earning €4,000 a month, apartments at €30,000 and rents of €200. The real scenario: jobs paying €1,300, hovels costing €300,000 and rents of €1,200. With those numbers, the antiestéticar of a divorce that wrecks your assets stops being paranoia and becomes just another variable in the calculation. Add the influence of a culture that no longer sanctifies the family, and you get a generation that looks at parenthood the way one looks at a high-risk investment.

The curious thing about this whole story is that nobody demands an explanation from the €1,300 salary. Hypergamy can be blamed for many things, but certainly not for having to pay the mortgage.