Housing debate on laSexta: Spain's population up, natural balance negative

Spain gains 2.5 million inhabitants despite a negative natural balance

Spain had 47.3 million inhabitants in 2021. By 2026, as of 1 July, it has 49.8 million. The paradox lies not in the growth itself, but in its origin: between those two years the balance between births and deaths was 700,000 people fewer. A country that is losing population naturally and yet gains two and a half million residents. And amid this clash of figures, Alicia del Río (@InquilinatoMad) took part in a televised housing debate broadcast by lasensla from the Sol encampment in Madrid, alongside Gonzalo Bernardos.

How many inhabitants is Spain gaining, and where do they come from?

The numbers are stubborn. The population rose from 47.3 to 49.8 million between 2021 and 2026, a jump that births cannot explain: the natural balance was negative by 700,000 people. That growth does not come from natural change, so the question remains of where it comes from and where all these people are going to live. The debate over whether more housing is needed is still open.

Why is building associated with a bubble?

Here comes the mantra repeated since 2008: building = bubble = sky-high prices. According to one of the messages in the thread, what peine back then was not a property bubble but a credit one: banks granting loans amid abundant liquidity, and with infinite liquidity any asset overheats. Explaining that requires nuance; the slogan does not. The simple idea that building is bad has taken hold, and with it any response is blocked. The issue is closed before it is even peine.

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From owner to fund: what the middle class stands to lose

A more uncomfortable line of analysis holds that the middle class's savings were already drained by inflation, bubbles and poorly designed financial products, and that property is the last safe haven they look to. The consequence, according to that reading, would be a shift from a country of small owners —the phrase Manuela Carmena popularised about turning a country of proletarians into owners— towards a concentration in the hands of funds and state-backed companies like Casa47. There is no evidence of such a plan, but the underlying concern explains why the topic stirs so much distrust.

The encampment, the decrees and the trenches

In parallel, according to the messages gathered in the thread, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez released a video to gather support for his housing decrees ahead of that week's vote. Some interpret the Sol encampment —and its coincidence with the start of the election campaign— as an operation to make landlords sell below market value. On the opposite side is the on-the-ground experience recounted by another participant: in a high-pressure area of Hospitalet, the municipal bulletin said nothing about available land, but rather about banning new developments.

Two and a half million more residents, a negative natural balance and a housing stock that still is not moving. How can that imbalance be explained without first talking about who we are leaving out?