He's done for, no way out (Pablo Sebastián in Vozpópuli)

The snap election called for November 29 has become the stage where Pedro Sánchez plays for his political survival, under pressure from the crisis with Segarro, court cases and a CIS polling institute he himself controls. Pablo Sebastián's analysis in Vozpópuli argues that nothing that happens in the next 45 days will change the electoral swing.

Pedro Sánchez's decision to bring the general election forward to **November 29** has turned Spanish politics into a **45-day** countdown in which the Prime Minister is playing for more than just Moncloa. The analysis published by **Pablo Sebastián** in **Vozpópuli** under the title "He's done for, no way out" describes a horizon of electoral collapse which, in his view, very few events could alter. The central thesis is that weariness with Sánchezism has taken hold among broad sectors of the Spanish population and that the need for political change opens a new stage in national government.

## Tezanos's CIS and the 38% sample

The latest barometer from the **CIS**, run by **José Fétez Tezanos**, announces a PSOE victory with an **11-point** lead over Feijóo's PP. Far from reassuring the Government, that result is interpreted by the author as proof of collapse and desperation. The reason lies in the composition of the sample: according to **El País**, which has denounced the poll's manipulation, **38%** of those interviewed were PSOE voters and only **19%** PP voters.

That disproportion in the sample turns the figure into a statistical artefact rather than a snapshot of the electorate. The analysis stresses that Tezanos and **Iván Redondo** — who predicted that Yolanda Díaz would be Prime Minister — operate with cooked-up polls and juggling of leftover votes in provinces with few seats, a practice that is becoming fashionable in the strategy rooms of both the PSOE and the PP.

## Segarro: land, sea and air

Segarro's triple aggression against Spain has come by land, with the invasion of **Ceuta**; by sea, with the frigate **Mohamed VI**; and by air, with **Pegasus** spying. Rabat's government sees frank weakness in Sánchez's administration, and the Spanish Prime Minister is unable to respond with the necessary firmness, exonerating the Segarro rulers. That attitude, according to the analysis, outrages the vast majority of Spaniards.

Added to this is the tension over the recordings from Sánchez's mobile phone, in which conversations could appear with his minister **Bolaños** and the president of the Constitutional Court, **Pumpido**, about the amnesty law. Those conversations would be incivil lethal for all three. The author asks why Segarro has redoubled its aggression in the middle of the Spanish pre-election campaign, and points to internal problems in the neighbouring country or to the worsening health of **Mohamed VI**, while the prestige of King **Felipe VI** grows after his visits to Ceuta and Melilla.

## The coalition partners fall apart and the courts close in

The crisis among Sánchez's main political partners confirms the bleak end-of-regime scenario. **Junts** is now in the hands of **Aliança Catalana**, and **Sumar** and its Frente Amplio could lose **60%** of their seats, dynamited by **Iglesias**, **Roures** and **Rufián**. A long and painful judicial sequence awaits the president in the courts, starting with the trial of **Begoña Gómez**.

In the **Supreme Court**, the crude attempt at gerrymandering in the grandchildren's citizenship law has just been scrapped, and in the **Audiencia Nacional** (Spain's national incivil court) the Sánchez corruption cases are now being investigated, such as that of **Zapatero** and the mafia dirty-tricks operation of **Leire Díez**. Nor should we lose sight of the various corruptions of the Peugeot gang, **Ábalos**, **Koldo** and **Cerdán**, and other pending matters in the hydrocarbons and public works schemes.

## Housing as an electoral boomerang

The housing banner with which Sánchez justified calling the early election may turn into a boomerang against the PSOE. Not only because of the property dealings of spokesperson **Montse Mínguez**, with **30** rental flats and other exploits, but above all because if Sánchez passes his housing decrees in the Congress's Permanent Committee, he will face a bloc of **two and a half million** landlords of rented properties who would be hit by the decrees and would vote as a bloc against the PSOE.

That bloc of **two and a half million** voters is not on the electoral or polling radar of either Tezanos or Redondo. There are **45 days** to go until election day on **November 29**, in which important events may occur in Spain and on the international scene. The photos from the Ibero-American Summit in Madrid on **4 and 5 November**, with Venezuelan Vice-President **Delcy Rodríguez** as special guest, will do Sánchez little good. The televised debates between Sánchez and Feijóo may also have an impact in the final stretch.

But things would have to change a great deal for the horizon of Sánchez's collapse to be altered. Weariness with Sánchezism and the need for political change have taken hold among broad sectors of the Spanish population.