Gold and silver: 60 days of volatility before September 22
Gold dropped $200 per ounce in under two weeks, hitting $1,180. The countdown to Germany's Sept 22 election divides physical metal buyers.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Gold and silver: the 60-day countdown set by Germany
In June 2013, gold fell $200 per ounce in less than two weeks, settling at $1,180, a nearly three-year low. From that bottom, the conversation among physical metal buyers shifted from charts to calendars: about sixty days until the September 22 German elections, with few willing to make moves beforehand. Silver appears to be trending up.
By July 2013, the ounce hovered around $1,200, making buying tangible rather than abstract. A retail investor bought physical gold for the first time—two Krugerrands at $1,200, €958 exchange rate—justifying it with standard technicals: completed 61.8% correction, oversold stochastic, weak hands selling. Another countered that those coins were at $1,000. The price discrepancy lasted less than the debate on timing, which remains open. Some accumulate a little every week, however small, while others have held back for months.
Why does the German September 22 date affect gold?
Because that date concentrates what the market cannot resolve. German elections act as a technical pause: no one expected a plot twist—Merkel's re-election was taken for granted—but did anticipate changes in governance and, consequently, eurozone fiscal policy, where gold's value is determined. Two maps intersect along this axis.
The first is technical: the bullish trend passes through the $1.13x zone, and a strong break below the 61.8% support would return prices to the movement's start, near $74x. The second is cyclical: after 2008, Fibonacci succession suggested another crisis in 2013, and Kondratiev long waves placed the economy in transition from recession to depression, with autumn and winter as key seasons. Additionally, a cycle analyst's study, accurate so far, indicated a probable bottom between July and September.
Even among believers, there is no unanimity. Precious metals are downward from now, one summarized. No war, for now, added another. With such certainty levels, prudence prevails.
95% of paper lacks physical backing
The other front is the physical market. JP Morgan's COMEX stocks plummeted again in June 2013, US demand for gold and silver coins hit historic highs, and Chinese monetary expansion promised more money chasing safe havens. Amid this cocktail, a figure without public breakdown repeats: 95% of gold and silver transactions lack physical metal backing.
Hence the thesis dominating part of the sector: the daily published price is a paper number, increasingly detached from touchable metal. Add the narrative of metal leaving Europe for Switzerland and further beyond. In this framework, any supply shortage episode would cease being a theoretical hypothesis and become arithmetic.
Silver at $16 or $22 per ounce?
Here, waters seemed calmer. Silver showed clearer upward behavior, though with an uncertainty summarizing general doubt: whether the next jump would take it to $16 or $22 per ounce before the elections. Choosing either figure confesses the model used, breaking consensus. Some see the glass half full in this industrial metal; others warn that if the economy sinks, factory demand drags the price down before safe-haven status can support it.
Radioactive synthetic gold and other bottom signals
When prices fall sharply, news announcing their end appears. During the debate, rumors circulated that gold had been synthesized somewhere, without details or sources. The response was firm: synthesized gold is radioactive and creating 0.3 grams costs about $200, far above reasonable quotes. It does not threaten supply.
But it serves as a thermometer. Stories about synthetic gold, space mining, or gold-excreting bacteria often coincide with market bottoms, precisely because they signal that no one debates the cycle anymore, only the price. This is when the bullish narrative finds its best unintended advertising.
Pantry, water, and passport
Underlying the topic emerges another conversation, moving from investment to tail-risk scenarios. Some are not satisfied with silver alone and rotate food stock in their pantry, convinced that warehouse tranquility matters. Hay quien no se conforma con plata y llena la despensa rotando stock de alimentos, convencido de que la tranquilidad que da un almacén importa.
In June 2013, gold fell $200 per ounce in less than two weeks, settling at $1,180, a nearly three-year low. From that bottom, the conversation among physical metal buyers shifted from charts to calendars: about sixty days until the September 22 German elections, with few willing to make moves beforehand. Silver appears to be trending up.
By July 2013, the ounce hovered around $1,200, making buying tangible rather than abstract. A retail investor bought physical gold for the first time—two Krugerrands at $1,200, €958 exchange rate—justifying it with standard technicals: completed 61.8% correction, oversold stochastic, weak hands selling. Another countered that those coins were at $1,000. The price discrepancy lasted less than the debate on timing, which remains open. Some accumulate a little every week, however small, while others have held back for months.
Why does the German September 22 date affect gold?
Because that date concentrates what the market cannot resolve. German elections act as a technical pause: no one expected a plot twist—Merkel's re-election was taken for granted—but did anticipate changes in governance and, consequently, eurozone fiscal policy, where gold's value is determined. Two maps intersect along this axis.
The first is technical: the bullish trend passes through the $1.13x zone, and a strong break below the 61.8% support would return prices to the movement's start, near $74x. The second is cyclical: after 2008, Fibonacci succession suggested another crisis in 2013, and Kondratiev long waves placed the economy in transition from recession to depression, with autumn and winter as key seasons. Additionally, a cycle analyst's study, accurate so far, indicated a probable bottom between July and September.
Even among believers, there is no unanimity. Precious metals are downward from now, one summarized. No war, for now, added another. With such certainty levels, prudence prevails.
95% of paper lacks physical backing
The other front is the physical market. JP Morgan's COMEX stocks plummeted again in June 2013, US demand for gold and silver coins hit historic highs, and Chinese monetary expansion promised more money chasing safe havens. Amid this cocktail, a figure without public breakdown repeats: 95% of gold and silver transactions lack physical metal backing.
Hence the thesis dominating part of the sector: the daily published price is a paper number, increasingly detached from touchable metal. Add the narrative of metal leaving Europe for Switzerland and further beyond. In this framework, any supply shortage episode would cease being a theoretical hypothesis and become arithmetic.
Silver at $16 or $22 per ounce?
Here, waters seemed calmer. Silver showed clearer upward behavior, though with an uncertainty summarizing general doubt: whether the next jump would take it to $16 or $22 per ounce before the elections. Choosing either figure confesses the model used, breaking consensus. Some see the glass half full in this industrial metal; others warn that if the economy sinks, factory demand drags the price down before safe-haven status can support it.
Radioactive synthetic gold and other bottom signals
When prices fall sharply, news announcing their end appears. During the debate, rumors circulated that gold had been synthesized somewhere, without details or sources. The response was firm: synthesized gold is radioactive and creating 0.3 grams costs about $200, far above reasonable quotes. It does not threaten supply.
But it serves as a thermometer. Stories about synthetic gold, space mining, or gold-excreting bacteria often coincide with market bottoms, precisely because they signal that no one debates the cycle anymore, only the price. This is when the bullish narrative finds its best unintended advertising.
Pantry, water, and passport
Underlying the topic emerges another conversation, moving from investment to tail-risk scenarios. Some are not satisfied with silver alone and rotate food stock in their pantry, convinced that warehouse tranquility matters. Hay quien no se conforma con plata y llena la despensa rotando stock de alimentos, convencido de que la tranquilidad que da un almacén importa.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (135 replies).
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