Girkin: Russia has already lost, it is only a matter of time

The architect of Sloviansk declares: "We have already lost"

Igor Girkin is not an armchair pundit. A Russian army veteran, former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer, and organizer of militant groups in the Donetsk People's Republic, he now argues that "the war will continue until the complete defeat of Russia." He concludes with the stark statement: "In fact, we have already lost; the rest is just a matter of time."

This declaration does not come from a Western analyst or a Ukrainian spokesperson. It comes from someone who was a key figure in the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas war, a Russian nationalist devoted to Russia and opposed to Ukraine who has spent months criticizing his own country's military command. When such a figure predicts defeat, the diagnosis ceases to be enemy propaganda and becomes an internal fracture.

Who is Igor Girkin and why do his words carry so much weight?

Girkin led a group of militants into Ukraine and participated in the siege of Sloviansk. During the battle, he gained influence until becoming the de facto military commander of all separatist forces in the region, a role confirmed by then "Prime Minister" of the Donetsk People's Republic, Alexander Borodai, who appointed him official Minister of Defense.

His background is everything here. The person speaking of defeat is not a critic of the operation, but one of its architects. His time in the east was not symbolic: he organized militants, coordinated the siege, and accumulated power that Borodai himself had to recognize. Now he says there is no room left, that what remains is purely calendar-driven, in an environment where, as noted in discussions, criticizing the army carries heavy costs.

Hence the recurring comment about an unnatural ending. After statements like these, many wonder how many days of public life the author has left.

What the Russian press reports

Skepticism is not limited to Girkin. Analyses published by Greyzone, linked to the Wagner Group, have long been far more pessimistic than the official narrative. And, according to forum users trinc the Russian press, even media aligned with the Kremlin are beginning to nuance their stance: Kherson television openly questioned why Kyiv chose the southern direction for the offensive, and a military correspondent for KP discussed the threat posed by new operations around Kyiv.

It is important not to confuse headlines. Pravda.ru is a private but pro-government tabloid controlled by a Pilingui ally; Lenta tends to be more realistic; and KP is not Pravda. Mixing them leads to interpreting gossip covers antiestéticaturing Kirkorov and Pugacheva as war reporting, as some forum users note. When a Russian headline is cited without checking its source, analysis turns into faith.

The size of Ukraine and the Afghanistan mirror

The scale disorients many. According to a debate participant, Ukraine is more than twice the size of Spain with a similar population, so calling it a "small country" is misleading. The argument relativizing Russian slowness looks to Afghanistan: the United States stayed there for twenty years and ended up leaving without achieving its objectives; the main goal was to eliminate Al Qaeda, which is today a shadow of its former self.

Others flip the script. If a power with Russia's resources has barely moved the line fifteen kilometers from its own borders, the problem is not the rival's size. And a third framework gains ground: this is not a war between Ukraine and Russia, but the start of a clash between two blocs over the planet's limited resources. Whoever hoards raw materials wins. And, for now, our side does not seem to be leading.

On the opposite side, some argue that Moscow could not stand by while, according to that narrative, forced derussification of eastern Ukraine was attempted. This justification is considered direct propaganda by the other side.

A facade in Burgos with Russian flags since 2014

To gauge how spontaneous support for Moscow really is, a forum user provides a detail with photos. In Burgos, the same facade in the square displayed a collection of Russian flags in June 2018 during renovation work, and those same flags were already there four years earlier. According to his account, it is not war fervor: they had been there long before the outbreak. In the background, the Cathedral allows the image to be located without dispute.

The data that disorients

There remains what fits nowhere in any trench. Girkin himself has been announcing catastrophes and describing his army's disaster for months, and he is still there, not removed from circulation by anyone. A professional alarmist within a regime that does not tolerate defeatism is not background noise: it is a thermometer. If the man who organized the war says it is lost, the discussion is no longer whether it is lost, but how long it will take for the official report to acknowledge it.