German Study Estimates That Only 14% of PCR Positives Develop IgG
A German study estimates that only 14% of PCR positives developed IgG antibodies. The author reportedly has four retractions, according to the debate.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Why a German study lowers PCR positives to 14%
A study signed by researchers from the universities of Stuttgart and Koblenz, along with researcher Harald Walach, concludes that only around 14% of individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 via PCR in Germany during the pandemic subsequently developed detectable IgG antibodies. The work, titled ‘A calibration of nucleic acid (PCR) by antibody (IgG) tests in Germany: the course of SARS-CoV-2 infections estimated’, is based on aggregated data from accredited German laboratories (ALM), with approximately 90% coverage. In the debate, this figure is cited as proof that the entire pandemic management was a farce. The fine print of the method does not say that.
What an antibody test measures and what it doesn't
Detecting viral RNA and detecting a past infection are not the same thing. A positive PCR indicates genetic material at the time of collection; IgG appears weeks later and not in all cases. Some argue that this 14% seroconversion demonstrates that 86% of positives were false; the more cautious calculation suggests the opposite, because some infected individuals do not generate measurable antibodies or lose them before extraction. Without breakdown by timing and symptom severity, the 14% is a data point, not a verdict.
The author's curriculum vitae is questioned
The name Harald Walach is the weakest point of the work. The documentary trail of his publications places him as a parapsychologist and practitioner of alternative medicines, with at least four retracted studies, according to the profile review accompanying the debate. This does not automatically invalidate a result, but it requires scrutinizing the methodology before elevating it to incontrovertible proof. The article is hosted on Frontiers, with open access.
Antigen tests: the other front
The second front is rapid antigen tests, the white rectangles sold during the pandemic. Among the accounts exchanged are those who claim they tested positive with water or juice, and those who say they obtained a positive result without properly inserting the swab in the nose. These are isolated cases and do not establish a rate of false positives; a result read outside the indicated time or with a poorly taken sample is not considered valid.
The background noise remains: claims that the bicho was invented or that everything responded to a social engineering operation. There is no evidence to support this, and the 14% finding neither sustains it. How much of the pandemic skepticism survives a study with four retractions on its heels?
A study signed by researchers from the universities of Stuttgart and Koblenz, along with researcher Harald Walach, concludes that only around 14% of individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 via PCR in Germany during the pandemic subsequently developed detectable IgG antibodies. The work, titled ‘A calibration of nucleic acid (PCR) by antibody (IgG) tests in Germany: the course of SARS-CoV-2 infections estimated’, is based on aggregated data from accredited German laboratories (ALM), with approximately 90% coverage. In the debate, this figure is cited as proof that the entire pandemic management was a farce. The fine print of the method does not say that.
What an antibody test measures and what it doesn't
Detecting viral RNA and detecting a past infection are not the same thing. A positive PCR indicates genetic material at the time of collection; IgG appears weeks later and not in all cases. Some argue that this 14% seroconversion demonstrates that 86% of positives were false; the more cautious calculation suggests the opposite, because some infected individuals do not generate measurable antibodies or lose them before extraction. Without breakdown by timing and symptom severity, the 14% is a data point, not a verdict.
The author's curriculum vitae is questioned
The name Harald Walach is the weakest point of the work. The documentary trail of his publications places him as a parapsychologist and practitioner of alternative medicines, with at least four retracted studies, according to the profile review accompanying the debate. This does not automatically invalidate a result, but it requires scrutinizing the methodology before elevating it to incontrovertible proof. The article is hosted on Frontiers, with open access.
Antigen tests: the other front
The second front is rapid antigen tests, the white rectangles sold during the pandemic. Among the accounts exchanged are those who claim they tested positive with water or juice, and those who say they obtained a positive result without properly inserting the swab in the nose. These are isolated cases and do not establish a rate of false positives; a result read outside the indicated time or with a poorly taken sample is not considered valid.
The background noise remains: claims that the bicho was invented or that everything responded to a social engineering operation. There is no evidence to support this, and the 14% finding neither sustains it. How much of the pandemic skepticism survives a study with four retractions on its heels?
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (24 replies).
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