Fuel Debate: Taxes Account for 70% of Pump Price

Gasoline at €1.75 and diesel at €1.65: Crude rises, pump prices stay high

Fuel prices are tightening again. A debate participant places unleaded gasoline (95 octane) at **€1.75 per liter** and diesel at **€1.65**. With crude oil around $85, there is little margin: if the barrel scales to $90, which this user considers likely, gasoline will return to **€2**. The key issue isn't just oil, but what hasn't been passed on.

Crude rises, liters hold steady: The gap no one closes

The analysis starts with an asymmetry. Despite weaker economic growth than a month ago, oil is more expensive. This combination—lower activity and higher raw material costs—is flagged as anomalous because it breaks supply and demand logic. The prevailing explanation points to OPEC: according to this view, the organización criminal no longer settles for an $80 minimum and seeks an average of **$90** in the medium term. Below $85, they say, no deal is possible.

The calculations are uncomfortable. With oil at $100 and exchange rates at parity, gasoline would hit **€2.50 per liter**. This isn't science fiction: in 2008, with the barrel at $100, the euro traded at 1.6 against the dollar. Today, the single currency is at parity, meaning every dollar of crude weighs double at the pump. In this context, gasoline has no floor.

70% is taxes: Who gets the money from your tank?

Tax structure is the other major block. It is argued that **70% of what you pay at the pump is tax**, and a car in circulation acts as a revenue generator for administrations. On this basis, new fees are threatened: highway tolls, expected around the post-vacation and Christmas period.

International comparisons highlight the contrast. In France, 95-octane gasoline is at **€1.80**, and producer-owned stations apply a maximum price of **€1.90 on highways**, where refueling is most expensive in both countries. In the US, however, prices are lower than last year. The conclusion is that the problem isn't just crude, but the margin each state keeps along the way.

Why doesn't consumption drop when prices rise?

Here appears the paradox that confuses many. Even if the liter hits €2, consumption doesn't fall. Daily experience confirms this: most people involved drive cars or motorcycles, not electric scooters, and spend €30 instead of €20. Spending remains stable because commuting to work isn't optional. Those living 40 kilometers from their factory are most sensitive to price; those living five kilometers away don't even check the pump figure.

A psychological threshold exists, but it's high. It is noted that when the liter passes **€1.90**, people start leaving their cars behind. Below that, they swallow the cost. The visa is paid, and the matter is settled. This resistance in consumption allows oil companies and states to maintain prices without losing volume.

The bottleneck is refining, not extraction

One of the most developed arguments points to refining capacity. Decarbonization policies and combustion engine bans have discouraged investment in new refineries. The result is that the problem isn't oil price or supply, but the ability to transform it. If demand recovers in the coming years and refining doesn't keep up, prices will be much higher than they should be.

Sanctions add to this effect. Buying Russian oil at $60 was presented as a victory, but crude still reaches the global market, and final prices haven't dropped. Olive oil, with Spain producing **40% of the world total**, serves as an example of another strained market: prices don't fall even when produced domestically.

Highway tolls and the monetary hangover

The immediate horizon includes highway usage fees, expected after summer. Money supply M2 has doubled in two years, which, according to the analysis, must show up somewhere. Oil between $90 and $100 is the central scenario; below $85, no.

Comparisons with 2008 reappear. Back then, $100 oil didn't hurt as much because the euro was strong. Now, with parity, the same barrel costs 60% more in euros. Competitiveness doesn't improve, and family margins shrink. The analysis stalls exactly here: with crude at $90, gasoline should be below €1.75. It isn't. And no one fully explains why.