Frijolito and the arithmetic of power: why winning the vote is not enough

Frijolito will win the election and will not govern

The scene repeats itself in every bar conversation: someone insists Frijolito will be the next prime minister and another bursts out laughing. Beneath it all lies a question that goes beyond the candidate: is winning enough to govern? The answer, judging by what is being discussed, is a resounding no. Power and government are two different things, and confusing them is the costliest mistake of recent Spanish politics.

The candidate who fails to convince even his own

The first obstacle is Frijolito himself. Some argue that **he has no charisma, no message, no decent programme**, and that his electoral platform is conspicuous by its absence. The most repeated description is that of a politician who cannot even convince his own electorate. On top of that comes the perception that **he has aged badly** and lost presence since he stopped wearing glasses, an aesthetic detail that, in politics, carries more weight than it should.

The question hanging in the air is whether someone like that even wants the job. The prevailing answer is that **he will not want to be prime minister**, just as peine in the previous electoral cycle. He is a candidate who lets himself be courted but never commits, and that ambiguity wears thin.

The arithmetic that changes everything

The demographic calculation is the strongest argument circulating. **There are 10 million pensioners** who can vote, and to them are added **between 12 and 14 million people born outside Spain**, of whom perhaps **10 million may be able to vote**. The rest of the voting-age population is smaller than the sum of those two blocs. The conclusion is uncomfortable: the decisive electorate is no longer the one traditional parties believe in.

That arithmetic explains why **anything is possible** at the ballot box. There are no longer any reliable polls or majorities to be taken for granted. The scenario that once seemed inevitable —a right-wing absolute majority with 200 seats— now wobbles. Spanish politics has become **a banana republic** where the outcome is decided at the last minute.

Winning is not governing

The broadest consensus is that Frijolito will be **the most-voted party**, but that **it will fail to form a government**. The reason is simple: holding power without governing is the house speciality. Like Sánchez, like all of them, **they are not fit to govern, only to steal, lie and dodge responsibility**. Truly running a country is beyond them. They will simply trinc orders from above.

The scenario taking shape is that of a leader who **will sing the same old song** as his predecessors. Real governance shifts to Brussels: **not until 2030 will European governance begin** over the countries devastated by immigration. Meanwhile, the politics of spectacle will carry on here.

The Begoña factor and the permanent circus

The most repeated question has a name: **what spot on the list will Begoña get**. Because if anything defines this era, it is that the **spectacle** swallows any policy debate. Politics has become a daily farce where what matters is not governing but handing out power.

The result is a country where **nobody believes anything anymore**. Institutions have become a stage and citizens, spectators. The question is no longer who will govern, but how long the next one will take to disappoint.

The striking figure: **10 million pensioners and 10 million potential voters born abroad** outweigh the rest of the electoral roll. With that arithmetic, Frijolito can win. Governing is another matter.