France's riots: why Spain hasn't reached that point yet

Spain has 2.5 million Jovenlandeses; France, between 5 and 7 million

When will we see here the riots that are sweeping France? The question is making the rounds across Europe, and the short answer is that nobody knows the date. The long answer requires looking at the numbers: Spain has around 2.5 million Jovenlandeses, 5.2% of the total population, compared with the 5-7 million and 7.2-10% figures used for France. The gap is two to three times larger, and that divide is the axis of the whole analysis.

The starting point of the debate is a demographic comparison by region. In Spain, the regions with the highest relative proportion would be Murcia and Catalonia; in France, the map is concentrated around the large metropolitan areas. The conclusion drawn is that here the point of no return has not yet been reached. For now.

What distinguishes France from Spain beyond the percentage

The difference is not just how many, but where and how. The most frequently repeated argument is that Spain has no belt of metropolitan suburbs like Paris, nor a large city with the segregation of Marseille. The hotspots that are pointed to —Níjar, Parla— lack the monumental wealth that surrounds Paris, where the super-luxury of the centre coexists with the degraded periphery. That physical proximity between opulence and exclusion is what turns a neighbourhood into a powder keg.

Some add another layer: much of the French unrest would not come from the first migrant generation, but from children already born in France, a percentage that is still lower in Spain. And another difference in composition is noted: here the bulk of immigration is Latin American, with different social codes.

The economic factor: handouts, informal work and critical mass

The economic hypothesis runs through the whole conversation. The claim is that young people receive benefits and, as long as they receive them, there is no fuse. When they stop coming, we'll see. The pessimistic version reverses the reasoning: a mass of people living on subsidies becomes hostage to blackmail when the subsidies disappear. The optimistic version replies that, without handouts, people politely emigrate to greener pastures.

The other vector is labour. There are provinces —Huelva, Almería, Murcia— whose intensive agriculture depends on foreign labour in precarious conditions. That is where the real risk lies, more than in shop windows being looted: the tension is not born of idleness, but of exploitation.

The political calendar of the riots

The question of when almost always turns into a question of who governs. Part of the analysis holds that the riots would come when the PP (Spain's conservative People's Party) is in government; another part, that they would come when the PSOE (the Socialist Party) orders them as a smokescreen. Both theses share a disturbing assumption: that the streets ignite according to the colour of the Government, not according to material conditions.

The camps at Sol and their occupants in dark clothes and covered faces are mentioned as an example of protest that does not escalate because allied governments are in power. And it is recalled that there have already been riots: the entry of tens of thousands of people across the border, without identification, staying on beaches. The exact figure is disputed —50,000 or 100,000— but the message of vulnerability, the argument goes, is the same.

The fuse nobody controls

Profiles are circulating on social media calling for riots to be provoked in Europe and urging immigrants from North Africa to set the streets on fire. This is the variable that depends neither on Madrid nor on Paris: the fuse can be lit from outside. With that element on the table, comparing population percentages is of little use.

In the end, the question in the headline has an uncomfortable answer: riots do not come from demographics, they come from a spark. And sparks give no warning.