Euribor hits 4.149% in July as Spanish housing prices keep rising

Falling prices that never arrive clash with 13% hikes

The Euribor closed July at an average of 4.149%, its highest level in 15 years. This figure supports the most common forum theory: prices should fall, but they don’t. Portals confirm no such drop. Over the last 12 months, all autonomous communities recorded increases, from 13% in the Balearic Islands to 0.3% in Melilla. Since the 2008–2011 bubble peak, declines exist, but not in active listings.

Why hasn’t the Euribor crashed prices yet?

The recurring argument is that the Euribor acts forcefully but with a delay. It has been rising for a year, enough to stall increases, but not yet to reverse the trend. At current rates, another forum user notes, the total cost of a mortgage doubles compared to 2021 financing, directly hitting buyers’ purchasing power.

The scenario is not a collapse but a tug-of-war. Cash buyers feel nothing; those needing mortgages feel everything. This dual market explains why relative declines and flat prices coexist, with trends depending more on postcode than national data. Meanwhile, doubt remains: what if operations simply pause instead of falling?

€45,000 flats: the housing no one wants

This is where statistics break. One user bought 75-square-meter flats, 60 years old but structurally sound, for under €45,000. Another cited a new three-bedroom, 103-square-meter property with garage in Torreagüera (Murcia) for €64,000—a municipality under 10,000 residents—with rent at €600, which a third user said should be half. Neither affects the general index.

The emerging explanation is simple: unsold properties are undervalued. Deteriorated housing in undesirable neighborhoods, or buildings with unpaid maintenance fees, remain on the market. When decent, market-priced properties appear, they vanish within a week. Quality, not price, is today’s real filter.

The musical chairs game and arrivals squeezing demand

Some analysis suggests stock will tighten demographically. The calculation: if 300,000 people arrive in a city like Barcelona, roughly 50,000 flats are needed, legally or illegally. Fewer chairs than players. Others counter that these arrivals don’t buy: they share rooms and pressure cheap rentals, not €350,000 properties.

Here enters the legal framework. The Housing Law has strengthened tenants’ positions, and many projections conclude that prudent owners either raise entry barriers or leave flats vacant. Some argue unpaid rent will rise and shared-room arrangements will evolve into illegal occupations. These are forecasts, not closed accounts.

Fire-selling or waiting: the two possible endings

The most defended strategy is holding. Those who own homes outright and take no debt gain in any scenario: if prices rise, their asset appreciates; if they fall, they still collect rent.

On the other side are cases statistics miss: owners needing liquidity who accept whatever offers come, or properties unsold due to condition or location.

Price intervention: who has the final say?

The unsettling question is what happens if the market doesn’t fall on its own. Some predict price caps and even expropriations if the state must house workers for reindustrialization. Opposing this is the patient-money thesis: funds with spare liquidity waiting for a crisis to corner housing in major cities and dominate the market.

Neither has peine. The starting data remains: Euribor at 4.149%, prices not yielding in forum data, and buyers feeling they’ve arrived too late. Whether Spain’s property market will crash is a debate considered settled in advance.