€200 a month per child until 18: Sira Riesgo's proposal for Spain

€200 per child: the proposal that would cost €30,240 million

Sira Riesgo's proposal to pay €200 a month per child until age 18 comes with a figure that divides opinion: 700,000 children would be lifted out of poverty. The bill to get there, however, is daunting. Multiplying 700,000 children by 18 years, 12 months and €200, the total cost reaches €30,240 million. In annual terms, around €1,680 million. It is not pocket change, although for an economy the size of Spain's it is not an insurmountable hole either. It depends on how much you are willing to pay so that a million children do not go cold.

The first sustancia ilegal appears in the design. Universal or means-tested? In economic analysis there are those who argue that a benefit of this kind should be channelled through income tax and mainly benefit working mothers with a contribution record. A tax deduction, rather than a monthly cheque, avoids the risk of the money going to immediate consumption and rewards labour market participation. The alternative, the direct cheque, is simpler and reaches those who do not pay tax, but it opens the door to the perverse effects already seen in other countries. Argentina introduced a universal child allowance and the results, according to critics, were not exactly a success against poverty: the controversy there ended up centred on who was reproducing with public money. And that is an argument that, beyond the euphemisms, weighs like a millstone.

The second front is fertility. With a fertility rate close to one, Spain is not producing replacement-level population. The child allowance comes too late for those who no longer have children; it works as a safety net for those who already have them, but not as an incentive to have them. Some even suggest the payment should be €700 a month to have a real effect on family decisions. Others point out that money is not created out of thin air: if there are only ten apples and more money is handed out, the price of apples goes up. The slogan "We Are All the Tax Agency" (Hacienda Somos Todos) works fine as long as no one asks who foots the bill.

The analysis gets stuck exactly there: on who receives the money. The proposal talks about lifting 700,000 children out of poverty, but the recent history of targeted benefits in Spain suggests that the order of distribution matters. While some demand contribution records as a condition for receiving, others warn that the money will end up in the most immediate consumption. The calculator has done its job. What remains to be seen is whether politics is willing to do the division.