Ageing migration won't save Spain's pensions, Funcas warns

Migration will not fix Spain's pension problem: the warning from Funcas and the AIReF

The official narrative holds that the arrival of young migrants will help sustain the pension system. But the latest data and analyses point in the opposite direction. Funcas (the Spanish savings banks foundation) has just warned that migration not only fails to solve demographic ageing, but may actually make it worse. The reason: Spain is attracting an increasingly older migrant profile, which adds pressure on public health and long-term care spending without offsetting it with sufficient social security contributions.

The profile of migrants arriving: older and less productive

The data is stark. Over the past four years, Spain has received some 615,000 migrants aged over 55, a figure higher than the entire population of Málaga. The group of foreign nationals over 54 is the fastest-growing, and arrivals over 65 through family-based regularisation (arraigo familiar) have surged by 3,500%. These are people who, in many cases, do not contribute enough or go straight onto non-contributory benefits. The AIReF (Spain's independent fiscal authority) confirms it: a mass regularisation of migrants would add barely 0.03 percentage points of GDP in contributions up to 2050. Almost nothing.

The structural factor: low wages and high precariousness

But the problem is not just the age of arrival. The quality of employment offered to the migrant population is key. A detailed analysis shows that the minimum wage in Spain contributes only 6.5% to social security, compared with 20% in France or Germany. Moreover, the pension replacement rate for low wages is close to 100%, which raises future spending without matching revenues. Job precariousness — part-time and temporary contracts, low wages — means many migrants contribute little while consuming public services like any other citizen. The result: a negative fiscal balance.

A debate with clashing views

Against this diagnosis, some argue that migration can indeed be part of the solution if it focuses on young, skilled profiles with stable employment. But the available data show that the current flow does not match that profile. The 2022 reform of Spain's immigration regulations removed the requirement for private health insurance for family-based regularisation, making it easier for older people without resources to arrive. Meanwhile, the birth rate continues to fall and life expectancy keeps rising. The demographic equation does not add up with more migrants unless they contribute on the same terms as the active population.

The analysis closes with two certainties: the system needs more young, productive contributors, not more dependent people; and the demographic solution will not come by itself without structural reforms. Anyone expecting migration to plug the pension gap will be disappointed.