EU flags Spain as critical risk for child poverty and exclusion

EU flags Spain as critical risk for child poverty and exclusion

The European Commission published a report on employment, social policies and welfare across the 27 EU member states. In it, Spain appears as one of the fastest-growing major economies, an engine of the Union, praised even by The Economist for its performance in 2024. But the same document places the country in a "critical" situation regarding the risk of social exclusion and child poverty, a diagnosis shared only with Bulgaria in the first case and with Latvia and Greece in the second.

The contrast between macroeconomic figures and social reality is the core of the report presented by Stéphane Séjourné, Executive Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy; Roxana Mînzatu, Commissioner for Social Rights and Skills; and Valdis Dombrovskis, Commissioner for Economy.

Child poverty: 34.5% of children at risk

The most striking data point is the AROPE rate for children, which measures the risk of poverty or social exclusion among minors. It remained stable at 24.8% compared to 24.7% in 2022, but rose by more than two percentage points to reach 34.5%, placing Spain in a "critical situation" alongside Bulgaria. Countries such as Slovenia, Finland, Czechia, Denmark and the Netherlands record rates below 16%.

The general risk of poverty or social exclusion is also among the highest in the EU. Only Latvia and Greece share the "critical" assessment with Spain. Brussels also highlights the poor results of social transfers in reducing poverty, a factor directly linked to the two previous indicators.

Early school leaving and youth unemployment: structural burdens

The report underlines two problems weighing down the Spanish labor market. The first is early school leaving: the proportion of people leaving education and training decreased slightly in 2023 to 13.7%, but remains high and is considered a "critical situation". The second is youth unemployment, the highest in the EU above Greece: at the end of 2023, unemployment among young people aged 15 to 24 was 28%, almost double the EU average.

The document acknowledges improvements in the overall labor market. The employment rate increased substantially to 70.5% in 2023, compared to 75.3% in the EU, moving from a "critical situation" to "weak but improving". The unemployment rate (12.2%) and its long-term component (4.3%) are also rated as "weak but improving", although levels remain very high, especially among older workers and in the Canary Islands.

Official narrative versus social data

The report arrives at a time when the Government showcases economic growth and job creation as proof of its management. The Commission does not deny this improvement, but focuses on the gap between aggregate figures and household situations. Some argue, without the report supporting it, that growth relies on public spending financed by debt and a labor market with high temporary employment rates and low wages, which would explain why child poverty does not fall despite GDP increases.

The more optimistic analysis assumes that improvements in employment will eventually translate into social indicators. The pessimistic scenario starts from the premise that social transfers are not correcting inequality and that early school leaving and chronic youth unemployment perpetuate exclusion. The Commission does not close the diagnosis: it notes improvements but maintains the "critical" label on the indicators most affecting minors and young people.

What the data says about housing and cost of living

In the background of the report lies a problem that the Commission does not quantify but which dominates public debate: access to housing. Some argue that with a third of the net minimum wage spent on a room, youth emancipation becomes complicated and the risk of exclusion is inherited. The link between child poverty, early school leaving and youth unemployment is not coincidental: households with lower incomes are those who withdraw children from the educational system sooner and those most dependent on transfers which, according to Brussels, reduce poverty less than they should.

The disconcerting data is not in the report, but in the arithmetic: Spain grows above the European average and, at the same time, has the highest child poverty rate in its peer group. Both things are true. The question is how long they can coexist without one correcting the other.