EH Bildu would win in the Basque Country with 7 seats as PNV falls to 5

EH Bildu overtakes the PNV in the Basque Country while the PSE holds on with 5 seats

A Basque Government poll with data from October 20 to 23 places EH Bildu as the leading force in the Basque Country ahead of November 29: 7 seats, up from 5 in 2023. Aitor Esteban's PNV would be left with 5, losing one of the two it won in Gipuzkoa. The paradox is that Otegi's coalition grows while Sumar and Podemos sink: the Frente Amplio alliance would fall from 10.64% to 3.6% and Podemos to 1.5%, losing Lander Martínez's only seat.

The real headline of the poll is not so much the overtaking as the transfer of votes from the confederal left to the abertzale (Basque pro-independence) coalition. In Gipuzkoa, EH Bildu widens its lead to 36.9% against the 20.3% of Maribel Vaquero's list. In Bizkaia, the gap with Eneko Andueza's PSE-EE is barely nine tenths of a point. And in Álava, the Socialists would win again with 27.9%.

The PP fails to capitalise on Sánchez's decline

Javier de Andrés's Basque PP would be left with two seats, those of Esther Martínez in Bizkaia and Iñaki Oyarzábal in Álava. There is no transfer of discontent with the central government to the Basque right. Vox would win no representation in any of the three historic territories.

The reading that emerges from the analysis is that the polarisation of the pre-campaign does not benefit those who invoke it from Madrid. The PNV, Pedro Sánchez's parliamentary partner for the past eight years, appears to have no space left: it neither gathers the useful vote against the abertzale left nor cashes in on its role in Congress.

Basque living standards and the fiscal grievance

The electoral data has peine an old debate: that of the concierto económico (the Basque economic agreement) and regional financing. Some argue that the Basque standard of living is explained by the cupo (fiscal quota) and the region's own tax administration powers, while others reply that GDP per capita and industry have been supporting the same claim for decades. The full calculation, with fiscal balances on the table, is enough for an entire article and cannot be summed up in a headline.

The truth is that the poll measures voting intention, not governance. And the Urda accident, which peine after the fieldwork, introduces a factor that no poll captured.

With these numbers, the question is not whether EH Bildu wins in votes, but whether the PNV has room to recover the lost ground before November 29. Nobody knows yet.