EH Bildu leads Basque polls, PNV falls to second

EH Bildu would win Basque elections as PNV drops to second place

What happens when the party that has governed the Basque Country for decades ceases to be the most voted? A poll attributed to the ElectoPanel series places EH Bildu ahead of the PNV in both votes and seats, with PNV candidate Pradales already acknowledging this scenario. The parliamentary translation is the most troubling: the PNV and PSE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) would not sum up to a majority, according to the same survey. The news is not just the overtaking. It is that the electoral floor of classic nationalism is cracking just as its partner in Madrid governs with the support of abertzale parties.

What the poll says and its implications for seats

The starting point is a survey placing EH Bildu as the leading force and the PNV in second place, surpassed in both votes and seats. With that composition, the sum of jeltzales (Basque nationalists) and socialists would not reach the necessary majority to renew the coalition government that has sustained the Basque Executive. It is not a complete overturn of seats, some voices clarify: the blocks move, but the board is not entirely rebuilt. The key lies in whether the PSE accepts or rejects an agreement with Bildu, and whether the PNV can govern in minority with specific supports.

Some argue that the PNV has the PSE's backing assured because, if the socialists made a pact with Bildu in the Basque Country, the jeltzales could topple Sánchez's government in Madrid. That calculation turns every Basque seat into a piece of national arithmetic. Others point to the opposite: if the PSOE makes a pact with Bildu, the PNV would have no problem making a pact with the PP and bringing down the government. The pincer works in both directions.

Why the PNV is sinking according to forum analysis

The most repeated diagnosis is the loss of identity. The PNV was a center-right nationalist party; now it competes for the same space as the abertzale left and has left its flank to Bildu. "For the left, there is already Bildu, and people do not vote for copies," summarizes one current. Added to this is the wear of an apparatus that for years has placed its own in institutions, public companies, and teaching positions. The result, according to this reading, is a management machine that functions as a job agency and not as a political project.

The lack of a charismatic candidate is the other factor. The new aspirant to lehendakari (Basque president) comes from the academic world, and some see in him a different profile that could halt the fall. Not everyone shares the pessimism: some analyses hold that, with a fresh candidate, the PNV does not necessarily lose. Statistics, however, play against them: each electoral cycle takes away a little more ground from the party that was once the axis of the Basque system.

Vote transfer and VOX's role

The movement of votes is not a simple exchange between blocks. Part of the electorate abandoning the PNV goes to Bildu, and another part stays at home. VOX rises, but not enough to alter the majority. The most cynical reading is that many vote for Bildu in general elections to annoy Madrid, but then do not want them governing in the Basque Country. That contradiction explains why Basque and general election polls never tell the same story.

The other factor is Yolanda Díaz. If her platform runs in the Basque Country, it splits the left-wing vote and complicates any alternative sum. That scenario benefits the PNV, which could continue governing with the PSE even if it is not the first force. Basque politics works like this: it is not always the one with the most votes who wins.

What happens with Otegi and Bildu's leadership

Otegi's possible exit from the front line is not a retreat to gain votes, but to keep them. That is the circulating reading: a generational change that cleans up historical baggage and allows Bildu to present itself as a new force. The Catalan strategy applied to the Basque Country. If it works, the abertzale party consolidates its electoral ceiling and forces the PSOE to choose between two uncomfortable partners.

Meanwhile, the PNV remains trapped in its own contradiction: being nationalist without seeming so, and center-right without center-right voters. Its historic voters are aging, young people are not arriving, and the party that was once the smartest in the class is now balancing to avoid disappearing from the map. With these materials, the overtaking is not an anomaly. It is the logical consequence of years looking at the wrong rival.