Disney loses global box office crown to Universal after decade

Disney loses its throne: four major box office failures in 2023

The centennial year ended without a crown. Disney, which had dominated the global box office for nearly a decade, closed 2023 behind Universal with four of its biggest bets falling far short of projections. No title from the house appears on the year's podium, occupied by Barbie, The Super Mario Bros Movie and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The Mickey Mouse factory still places four films among the top ten earners, but the pressure to reclaim the throne is more evident than ever.

A podium without Disney for the first time in years

Warner Bros won the US box office with Barbie and its $636 million, ahead of Universal and Columbia. Disney did not place any film in the top three. The company attributes the gap to fewer releases —17 versus Universal's 34— and claims this explains the $80 million difference between the two studios, which finished the year hovering around $5 billion.

The argument has an obvious flaw: it does not explain why the titles that were released performed so poorly below expectations. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny grossed only $383 million globally against a $300 million cost. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania earned $476 million. The Marvels made $205 million, with production and marketing costs exceeding $300 million. And the Little Mermaid remake, seventh highest earner of the year with $569 million, pales in comparison to The Lion King ($1.6 billion), Beauty and the Beast ($1.3 billion) and Aladdin ($1.05 billion).

How much must a movie earn to break even?

Here lies the trap of reading raw box office figures: the studio does not keep all ticket revenue. According to calculations cited by some in the debate, the producer retains roughly 40-45% of the gross; the rest is split among distributors, theaters and, in Spain, the tax authority (Hacienda), which takes about 10%. Additionally, marketing budgets can double production costs: the more expensive the film, the more spent on promotion. The math changes sign. By that standard, they add, a film like Indiana Jones would need to approach $700-800 million to avoid losses. It made $383 million.

This makes the quick calculation circulating online —dividing gross by investment and claiming a 27% return— an accounting boutade. On paper, $383 million on a $300 million budget looks profitable. In practice, it is not. And there are subsequent windows, video rental and television, which are increasingly diminishing.

Franchise fatigue: Star Wars, Marvel and burned-out nostalgia

For several participants in the debate, sagas that were once safe bets have lost public favor. Star Wars has reportedly been fractured with a large part of its fanbase for years, and superhero saturation has taken its toll. Marvel, they argue, no longer works by inertia: while Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Deadpool & Wolverine performed well, other entries sank. On the other hand, Andor is cited as the exception proving that adult-oriented Star Wars content can work.

There is another open front in animation. Elemental marked the second-worst opening in Pixar history, a statistic that stings more when compared to the era when almost any animated release from the house was a blockbuster. The sense of an exhausted catalog —classics already exploited, sequels already filmed— begins to weigh on the roadmap.

The ideological shift thesis

Much of the criticism regarding the decline does not focus on scripts or budgets, but on an ideological shift in content, summarized by the slogan go proge, go broke: the idea that Disney prioritized diversity agendas over entertainment and that audiences responded with indifference or rejection. Here the diagnosis splits. Some consider it the direct cause of viewer abandonment; others argue the problem is quality and franchise saturation, and that audiences do not reject diverse characters, but poorly made films with weak scripts. There is no way to quantify this rift.

Disney+, 7,000 layoffs and Iger's return

The financial front offers no relief either. Bob Iger returned to leadership in 2022 after Bob Chapek's dismissal and implemented an adjustment plan involving 7,000 layoffs. The Disney+ platform closed the last quarter with $387 million in losses, a notable reduction from the $1.4 billion loss in the same period the previous year, but still a loss. Monthly subscription prices rose from €8.99 to €11.99 and content was removed to cut costs, an unpopular decision. Added to this are six months of writers' and actors' strikes, tension with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and pressure from shareholder Nelson Peltz, who believes the company needs a change in direction to revive its stock price.

Does Disney's franchise model have a future?

The question is not whether Disney regains the throne in 2024, but whether the model of extremely expensive franchises plus a subsidized streaming platform can withstand another year of lukewarm releases. The emergence of artificial intelligence in animation production —some point out— would lower entry costs and multiply competitors; classic franchises have given what they had to give; and neither Pirates of the Caribbean nor Indiana Jones are currently performing exceptionally well. The full calculation of what each film should earn to turn a profit yields a frightening figure, and here disagreement is total: some emphasize ideology, others lack of ideas. No one disputes the costs.