DIA posts record profit but its shares keep sliding

DIA quadruples its profit but the stock won't recover

The paradox is textbook. In the first half of 2025, DIA posted a net profit of €37.8 million, its first positive result for that period since 2017, after last year's €93 million loss. Net sales grew 5% to €2,787 million, adjusted EBITDA soared 72% to €210.2 million and net debt fell by around 24%. Yet the share price keeps sliding. "Nothing, we're still the same, the share price in free fall with no brakes," sums up the frustration of those holding positions.

The business improves, the share price doesn't

Spain is the engine. Comparable sales grew between 7.4% and 7.5%, with fresh products up 14% and accounting for almost 29% of the mix. The 2025-2029 strategic plan envisages opening more than 300 stores —45 already this semester— and €900 million of investment to strengthen the proximity model. The company is seeking acquisitions in Spain, something it hadn't done since 2015, after exiting Brazil and Portugal to focus on Spain and Argentina.

But the market isn't buying the story. Some argue that the results presentation "looked good" and that news from Argentina as a country is improving, which should translate into sideways trading, not a daily decline. Others point to the southern country as the structural drag: "Argentina is the problem, and it will remain so for many years. They should have exited Argentina and not Brazil. In Spain there is a future."

Why does it rise 23% in a month and then fall?

The stock has seen notable swings. A 23% rise over the past month, as highlighted in the discussion, trinc by a further 14%, with the perception that it "bolsters its recovery after the results of the elections in Argentina." But the euphoria doesn't last. "Now it will drop, it was because of the promotion they ran for kids, which broke sales records," another participant quipped. The rally is attributed to circumstantial factors, not a structural change.

The underlying distrust runs deeper. Someone who has held a position since €18 says they've already doubled their money and are aiming for a 4x. On the opposite side, some would only consider re-entering if the stock returns to €14 "with no deterioration in fundamentals." The gap between militant optimism and extreme caution defines the tone.

The shareholder and the paradox of being listed

There is a current of opinion that questions being listed at all: "Viable companies don't need to go public; you go to the stock market looking for financing." The hierarchy they see is equity, bank credit, private capital and, only at the very end, the stock market. "Companies that go public have already drained the previous wells." A thesis that, applied to DIA, fuels skepticism about its recovery.

The franchise model, however, generates some confidence: "their franchise model apparently works quite well and everyone wins." And the shopping experience has improved. Several accounts agree that the store is no longer "as disastrous as I remembered," with better value for money and a renewed image imitating Mercadona's private labels. "Even the cashiers seem cleaner than before," sums up a recurring impression.

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The striking fact: with positive profits, rising EBITDA and falling debt, the stock still can't find a floor. The market, for now, isn't buying the recovery.