Currys: Turnaround Aims for 500p Share Price
Currys shares rise in UK and Nordics as market debates if the stock truly merits a 500p valuation.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Currys is no longer a cheap retailer, yet the market hasn't noticed
In late August 2026, Currys reported its trading update for the 17 weeks ending on the 29th. Like-for-like sales rose by 6% in the UK and Ireland, and 9% in the Nordic countries, with double-digit growth in B2B and new categories, alongside increased market share across all major segments. On paper, it was a solid quarter. In the stock market, however, the price remains stuck around 145 pence, while the stated target of 500p sounds like science fiction to anyone looking at the five-year chart.
What has changed under the hood
The bullish thesis doesn't rely on the traditional appliance business. That's the bait. What supports the argument is the mix: ID Mobile, the virtual mobile operator already approaching 3 million customers; a network of 800 stores that functions as last-mile infrastructure in the UK — one-third of click-and-collect orders are fulfilled in-store on the same day; an exclusive support agreement with Microsoft; and a consumer finance business where the company keeps a fee without assuming default risk, which is managed by real banks.
The other pillar is accounting-based and frequently cited by those holding the position: the company invests £85 million annually in capex but depreciates £265 million. This asymmetry, if sustained, boosts net profit without requiring extraordinary sales performance. The fiscal year 2025/26, ended in May, generated £9.254 billion in revenue.
The tailwind that blows only once
This is where the narrative cracks. The update itself acknowledges that the British market was stagnant and that about 2 percentage points of growth came from the World Cup and summer heatwaves. Discounting that boost, true organic growth sits near 4%. Not bad, but not rocket-science material either, with an uncomfortable nuance: the World Cup won't return soon.
The Nordics are a different story. The +9% growth with rising market share points to consumers with more disposable income than their British counterparts, who are squeezed by the National Insurance and minimum wage hikes implemented by Starmer's government. This tax pressure appears in analyses as an excuse for why the stock isn't taking off. It's a convenient excuse, but still just an excuse.
The liability missing from headlines
The company reports an annual contribution of £13 million to its pension scheme. This figure is used as proof that the problem is solved. The overlooked nuance: £13 million is the contribution rate, not the deficit. The actuarial shortfall of the UK scheme amounts to hundreds of millions and isn't paid down via annual contributions if the account goes awry. Then it wipes out net assets instantly.
It's the kind of line item that never makes the optimistic headline but does appear in any close reading of the company's reports. This is where analysis splits into two camps.
Where exactly do the 500p come from?
The valuation exercise is easy to replicate but hard to sustain. Using the most optimistic figures, with £12 billion in revenue, 30% recurring revenue at a 20% contribution margin, and the rest at 3%:
The 500p target doesn't emerge with low multiples. It only works if both the top-end EBITDA and the top-end multiple are achieved simultaneously. Two assumptions, in the best of all possible worlds. The skeptical view sums it up in one phrase: value that cannot be calculated with numbers is called hope, and in the stock market, hope costs you time until you accept the loss.
Where everything gets stuck
Since 2021, the market has watched the company guide towards the upper range only to see that ceiling move further away each quarter. The firm is the last to acknowledge the floor and the first to draw the peak. Every value trap in history started the same way: an investor day, a slide, and a promise. The difference with Currys is that today there is a telecom operator with nearly three million customers and capex that doesn't match depreciation. The numbers are on the table. So is conviction. What's missing is certainty that the ceiling will stop moving.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
In late August 2026, Currys reported its trading update for the 17 weeks ending on the 29th. Like-for-like sales rose by 6% in the UK and Ireland, and 9% in the Nordic countries, with double-digit growth in B2B and new categories, alongside increased market share across all major segments. On paper, it was a solid quarter. In the stock market, however, the price remains stuck around 145 pence, while the stated target of 500p sounds like science fiction to anyone looking at the five-year chart.
What has changed under the hood
The bullish thesis doesn't rely on the traditional appliance business. That's the bait. What supports the argument is the mix: ID Mobile, the virtual mobile operator already approaching 3 million customers; a network of 800 stores that functions as last-mile infrastructure in the UK — one-third of click-and-collect orders are fulfilled in-store on the same day; an exclusive support agreement with Microsoft; and a consumer finance business where the company keeps a fee without assuming default risk, which is managed by real banks.
The other pillar is accounting-based and frequently cited by those holding the position: the company invests £85 million annually in capex but depreciates £265 million. This asymmetry, if sustained, boosts net profit without requiring extraordinary sales performance. The fiscal year 2025/26, ended in May, generated £9.254 billion in revenue.
The tailwind that blows only once
This is where the narrative cracks. The update itself acknowledges that the British market was stagnant and that about 2 percentage points of growth came from the World Cup and summer heatwaves. Discounting that boost, true organic growth sits near 4%. Not bad, but not rocket-science material either, with an uncomfortable nuance: the World Cup won't return soon.
The Nordics are a different story. The +9% growth with rising market share points to consumers with more disposable income than their British counterparts, who are squeezed by the National Insurance and minimum wage hikes implemented by Starmer's government. This tax pressure appears in analyses as an excuse for why the stock isn't taking off. It's a convenient excuse, but still just an excuse.
The liability missing from headlines
The company reports an annual contribution of £13 million to its pension scheme. This figure is used as proof that the problem is solved. The overlooked nuance: £13 million is the contribution rate, not the deficit. The actuarial shortfall of the UK scheme amounts to hundreds of millions and isn't paid down via annual contributions if the account goes awry. Then it wipes out net assets instantly.
It's the kind of line item that never makes the optimistic headline but does appear in any close reading of the company's reports. This is where analysis splits into two camps.
Where exactly do the 500p come from?
The valuation exercise is easy to replicate but hard to sustain. Using the most optimistic figures, with £12 billion in revenue, 30% recurring revenue at a 20% contribution margin, and the rest at 3%:
- £800 million EBITDA, at the lower end of the scenario
- At 6x EBITDA and slightly less than £1 billion net debt: between 345 and 400 pence
- At 8x EBITDA: up to 490 pence
The 500p target doesn't emerge with low multiples. It only works if both the top-end EBITDA and the top-end multiple are achieved simultaneously. Two assumptions, in the best of all possible worlds. The skeptical view sums it up in one phrase: value that cannot be calculated with numbers is called hope, and in the stock market, hope costs you time until you accept the loss.
Where everything gets stuck
Since 2021, the market has watched the company guide towards the upper range only to see that ceiling move further away each quarter. The firm is the last to acknowledge the floor and the first to draw the peak. Every value trap in history started the same way: an investor day, a slide, and a promise. The difference with Currys is that today there is a telecom operator with nearly three million customers and capex that doesn't match depreciation. The numbers are on the table. So is conviction. What's missing is certainty that the ceiling will stop moving.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (134 replies).
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