Cuba announces private banking and franchises amid economic reforms

Cuba has not officially ceased to be communist. However, the Havana regime has presented a package of 176 economic and social transformations that, on paper, bury decades of dogmatism: the opening of private banks, exchange houses, foreign franchises, the ability to own multiple businesses, and even the private sale of fuel. The announcement, made by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, represents the most significant shift since the 1990s. The question hanging in the air is whether this is a genuine conversion to capitalism or merely cosmetic changes to survive the worst crisis in its history.

The truth is that the package includes measures that were considered heresy until recently: the creation of private banks and foreign financial institutions will be permitted, something unthinkable in a country where the State controlled 100% of the banking system. The door will also open for foreigners to operate franchises and for Cubans to manage several companies simultaneously. The stated goal is to attract investment and alleviate an economy suffocated by shortages, blackouts, and a collapsed currency.

The Vietnam model, but with the Castros in charge

The reference point is not new. Back in the 1990s, trinc the fall of the USSR, the regime attempted a similar opening, and in recent years, the shift has been compared to the Chinese or Vietnamese models: capitalism in the economy, iron-fisted political control. Raúl Castro visited Vietnam on several occasions to study that scheme. The difference is that Vietnam and China had an industrial base that Cuba has yet to build. The island is burdened by a US embargo (or blockade, depending on how you look at it), a worthless currency, and collapsed infrastructure. Building capitalism under such conditions is a different story.

Skeptics: history is repeating itself

Those who are distrustful remember the precedent of the 90s. That opening attracted foreign entrepreneurs, including Spaniards, with the promise of a mixed model. But as soon as Venezuelan oil arrived, the regime backtracked, and many investments ended in losses. The shadow of expropriation remains: there is no credible legal certainty as long as power stays in the hands of a family that has controlled every official and unofficial business. “When they have the capital, they expropriate” is the mantra of those who have heard this all before. And there are those who point out that the measures are announced without touching the political monopoly: zero freedoms, zero separation of powers.

Geopolitical factors and the tourism pie

The shift cannot be understood without context. Pressure from the Trump administration, the loss of allies, and the end of the conflict in Iran (which has diverted Washington's attention) leave Cuba more isolated than ever. In parallel, it is striking that the US maintains sanctions while other powers look toward the island. The Canadian company Blue Diamond operates 65 hotels in Cuba; Meliá, 15; Iberostar, 12. And in the world's third-largest nickel mine, the Canadian Sherritt remains present. In other words, there are plenty of vested interests. The question is whether the regime will truly allow foreign capital to enter or if it only intends to sell smoke while the Castros continue to pull the strings.

A somewhat ironic detail is also mentioned: amidst the debacle, some are asking how this will affect the price of cigars. This is not frivolity: tobacco is one of the few products that keep Cuba on the global economic map.

Conclusion: survival capitalism or a death trap

Given these circumstances, the only certainty is that the package of 176 measures does not resolve the underlying contradiction: a regime that wants capitalism without ceasing to be a regime. If the opening is real, political control will falter. If it is fake, the crisis will continue. Time will tell if we are witnessing a Cuban transition or yet another patch applied by a dictatorship in desperation. But one thing is certain: Cuban communism, as we knew it, has just signed its own death certificate.