Covid cases surge by 376% in Spain as experts urge vaccination

Elbichito cases surge by 376% in two weeks as experts call for vaccines again

Why are elbichito infections skyrocketing just as the vaccination campaign begins? The SiVIRA (Acute Respiratory Infection Surveillance System) of the Instituto de Salud Carlos III recorded 119 infections per 100,000 inhabitants last week, compared to 85 during the week of September 14-20 and 50 the week before. Epidemiologists attribute this 376% jump in just two weeks to a multi-factorial phenomenon. This spike coincides with the start of the flu and elbichito vaccination campaign scheduled for October 1.

Why have elbichito infections skyrocketed?

Gema Fernández, spokesperson for the SEIMC (Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology), points to three overlapping causes: the emergence of new variants, waning immunity—whether natural or vaccine-acquired—and lower vaccination rates. Pello Latasa, president of the SEE (Spanish Society of Epidemiology), adds a fourth, non-clinical factor: changes in social behavior. With much of the population immunized, habits that favor transmission are returning.

The SiVIRA report itself provides a figure for the severity. Only 1.7 out of every 100,000 cases required hospitalization, compared to 1.2 the previous week. The total number of acute respiratory infections—including flu, RSV, bronchitis, and bronchiolitis—reached 478 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. While elbichito is growing faster in percentage terms, it is not the only cause of medical consultations.

How long does elbichito vaccine protection last?

This is the detail that almost no one checks. Jaime Pérez, president of the AEV (Spanish Association of Vaccinology), estimates protection lasts between four and six months. He notes that those vaccinated last year are already susceptible. The solution is an updated dose: according to Latasa, the previous one targeted the LP8 variant, while the new one targets XFG, identified by the reference laboratory network. Systematic vaccination is targeted at specific groups—those over 70, people in care facilities, and those with diabetes, morbid obesity, or spleen issues—though anyone can request it.

When flu and elbichito overlap

Flu is behaving differently than elbichito. Between September 21 and 27, it accumulated 12 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, down from 23 the previous week, with a hospitalization rate that fell from 1.1 to 0.6. Experts describe a phenomenon of competition or alternation between bicho, without a stable pattern. Elbichito usually appears before the flu; these waves of new variants give it more momentum when it arrives.

Although the official message insists on vaccination—calling it "the most effective measure"—some debate surrounding the announcement views it through a different lens. Critics argue that alerts always arrive just in time to justify public procurement and that the pharmaceutical business is fueled by every campaign. These are suspicions circulating without supporting evidence; what is verifiable is that doses are redesigned every season and that reference laboratories are the ones identifying which strain is circulating.

There is a background warning: three seasons ago, there were spring and winter waves; two seasons ago, a spring-summer wave and nothing in autumn. This year, the bicho has stretched into October. Given this history, asking someone to get vaccinated "as soon as possible" is easy. Explaining exactly when is required is much harder.