Could Trump's Iran move be a master plan to trigger a megacrisis in China?
We examine the theory that Trump aims to trigger a megacrisis in China by closing the Strait of Hormuz, leveraging US oil self-sufficiency and the Monroe Doctrine.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
A Trump master plan? The theory of an induced megacrisis in China through Iran
China imports 50% of its oil from the Middle East; the United States, thanks to fracking, is one of the world's largest producers. If Trump closes the Strait of Hormuz, the asymmetric impact would be devastating for Beijing. Is it coincidence or strategy?
The calculated-plan hypothesis
The central idea is that Trump, far from acting out of senile impulses or Israeli blackmail, is executing a masterstroke to derail China. Closing Hormuz would cut off supplies to the world's second-largest economy, which depends on foreign crude for 70-75% of its needs. Meanwhile, the US could hold out with its domestic production and the Strategic Reserve. What's more, the Monroe Doctrine —America for the Americans— would fit if the goal is to repatriate industrial production from China to Latin America, where Washington is installing puppet governments (Argentina, Chile, now Venezuela).
The other side: dependencies and alternatives
However, other analyses point out that China is already diversifying: cheap Russian oil, leadership in electric vehicles and renewables, and control of rare earths. A blockade could accelerate its self-sufficiency. Moreover, Japan (75% dependence) and India (60%) would also suffer, but there is no sign that the US has moved its factories out of China before strangling it. The petrodollar empire —not a Chinese megacrisis— would be the real motive behind the tension with Iran and Venezuela.
Decadence or genius?
The skeptical view reminds us that empires in decline tend toward desperate gestures. The attempt to control Venezuela and Canada, combined with the warmongering rhetoric, could simply be the improvisation of a power that no longer sets the rules. The question that remains: are we witnessing the greatest geopolitical plan of the century, or the death rattle of a giant?
Related discussions in the forum
China imports 50% of its oil from the Middle East; the United States, thanks to fracking, is one of the world's largest producers. If Trump closes the Strait of Hormuz, the asymmetric impact would be devastating for Beijing. Is it coincidence or strategy?
The calculated-plan hypothesis
The central idea is that Trump, far from acting out of senile impulses or Israeli blackmail, is executing a masterstroke to derail China. Closing Hormuz would cut off supplies to the world's second-largest economy, which depends on foreign crude for 70-75% of its needs. Meanwhile, the US could hold out with its domestic production and the Strategic Reserve. What's more, the Monroe Doctrine —America for the Americans— would fit if the goal is to repatriate industrial production from China to Latin America, where Washington is installing puppet governments (Argentina, Chile, now Venezuela).
The other side: dependencies and alternatives
However, other analyses point out that China is already diversifying: cheap Russian oil, leadership in electric vehicles and renewables, and control of rare earths. A blockade could accelerate its self-sufficiency. Moreover, Japan (75% dependence) and India (60%) would also suffer, but there is no sign that the US has moved its factories out of China before strangling it. The petrodollar empire —not a Chinese megacrisis— would be the real motive behind the tension with Iran and Venezuela.
Decadence or genius?
The skeptical view reminds us that empires in decline tend toward desperate gestures. The attempt to control Venezuela and Canada, combined with the warmongering rhetoric, could simply be the improvisation of a power that no longer sets the rules. The question that remains: are we witnessing the greatest geopolitical plan of the century, or the death rattle of a giant?
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (13 replies).
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