Could a US strike on Iran upend Spain's right wing?
US media report a possible attack on Iran after the November 3 midterms. Oil at 150 dollars a barrel would spill into Spain's election campaign and test the PP and Vox.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Several US outlets treat a US and Israeli attack on Iran after the November 3 legislative elections as all but certain, with November 4 as a possible date. Iran threatens to hit Aramco refineries, and a barrel at 150 dollars would find its way into Spain's election campaign.
There is a hypothesis circulating in US media that should be taken for what it is: a scenario, not a done deal. After the legislative elections on **November 3**, the US and Israel could attack Iran, perhaps the very next day. Israel has gone months without striking Iranian targets, so this would be no skirmish.
## The scenario US media are weighing
The date that keeps coming up is **November 4**. According to those reports, the attack would be massive. Iran has responded that it would strike **Aramco** refineries and other energy facilities, damage that would take years to repair. And there is a political variable: if **Trump** suffers a humiliation on Tuesday the 3rd, that scenario gains ground.
## The price of a barrel and Spain's campaign
If the barrel climbs to **150 dollars**, the issue enters Spain's campaign through fuel prices and inflation. **Sánchez**'s government would take advantage of it, and the question is whether the **PP** and, above all, **Vox** can distance themselves from the White House without breaking with their base.
## Trump as an electoral drag on the right
The record cited does not help that distancing. Canada's Conservatives once held a **25-point** lead, and the Liberals' surge coincides with the tariffs and the 51st-state affair; the Liberal party is now hovering around **50%** of the vote with Canada on the brink of recession. Trump is also credited with easing **Frederiksen**'s re-election over Greenland and with helping **Lula** in Brazil, where the right won Congress and the states.
There is a hypothesis circulating in US media that should be taken for what it is: a scenario, not a done deal. After the legislative elections on **November 3**, the US and Israel could attack Iran, perhaps the very next day. Israel has gone months without striking Iranian targets, so this would be no skirmish.
## The scenario US media are weighing
The date that keeps coming up is **November 4**. According to those reports, the attack would be massive. Iran has responded that it would strike **Aramco** refineries and other energy facilities, damage that would take years to repair. And there is a political variable: if **Trump** suffers a humiliation on Tuesday the 3rd, that scenario gains ground.
## The price of a barrel and Spain's campaign
If the barrel climbs to **150 dollars**, the issue enters Spain's campaign through fuel prices and inflation. **Sánchez**'s government would take advantage of it, and the question is whether the **PP** and, above all, **Vox** can distance themselves from the White House without breaking with their base.
## Trump as an electoral drag on the right
The record cited does not help that distancing. Canada's Conservatives once held a **25-point** lead, and the Liberals' surge coincides with the tariffs and the 51st-state affair; the Liberal party is now hovering around **50%** of the vote with Canada on the brink of recession. Trump is also credited with easing **Frederiksen**'s re-election over Greenland and with helping **Lula** in Brazil, where the right won Congress and the states.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (2 replies).
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