Spain's right edges toward 53% in latest Electomanía R78 poll
Electomanía's R78 tracking poll gives Spain's right-wing bloc over 53% of the vote, 6-7 points more than in 2023. A shift that redraws the political map.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Electomanía's R78 consolidates the right at 53%
Electomanía's latest tracking poll, dubbed R78, has set off every alarm in the pogre camp: the combined vote intention of right-wing and centre-right parties would exceed 53%, between 6 and 7 points above the 2023 figure. If confirmed, the number would completely change the parliamentary arithmetic. The debate surrounding the indicator, however, falls short of the data itself: exchanges degenerate into mutual name-calling within minutes.
Behind the figure lies a trend some analysts had already flagged: the government's wear and the regrouping of the conservative vote. The R78 is not a standalone poll but a model that aggregates different waves, and its stability at that threshold suggests this is not a temporary uptick. The comparison with 2023, when the bloc polled 6 to 7 points lower, points to a net transfer of voters unlikely to reverse in the short term.
The unsettling figure is the paradox: with an electorate clearly leaning toward liberal options, public debate has become toxic. No poll measures toxicity, but the R78, with its 53%, makes it clear that Spanish politics has crossed a threshold. The question is whether that threshold is merely electoral or also institutional.
Electomanía's latest tracking poll, dubbed R78, has set off every alarm in the pogre camp: the combined vote intention of right-wing and centre-right parties would exceed 53%, between 6 and 7 points above the 2023 figure. If confirmed, the number would completely change the parliamentary arithmetic. The debate surrounding the indicator, however, falls short of the data itself: exchanges degenerate into mutual name-calling within minutes.
Behind the figure lies a trend some analysts had already flagged: the government's wear and the regrouping of the conservative vote. The R78 is not a standalone poll but a model that aggregates different waves, and its stability at that threshold suggests this is not a temporary uptick. The comparison with 2023, when the bloc polled 6 to 7 points lower, points to a net transfer of voters unlikely to reverse in the short term.
The unsettling figure is the paradox: with an electorate clearly leaning toward liberal options, public debate has become toxic. No poll measures toxicity, but the R78, with its 53%, makes it clear that Spanish politics has crossed a threshold. The question is whether that threshold is merely electoral or also institutional.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (10 replies).
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