Coffee prices rise ahead of EU deforestation law in 2026

Coffee is getting more expensive before the EUDR law even takes effect

A half-kilo pack of Portuguese roasted coffee that used to cost 1.85 euros was selling for 6.20 euros this summer, according to one forum user. That jump — more than triple — is no anecdote about one particular brand: it is a snapshot of a market that has spent two years pricing in the application of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR 2023/1115). The rule, approved on 19 April 2023 with 552 votes in favour, 44 against and 43 abstentions, requires that coffee entering the European Union be sustainable and not come from deforested land. The staggered timetable sets 30 December 2026 for large and medium-sized operators and traders, and 30 June 2027 for micro and small businesses. In other words: the coffee bought today is already paying for tomorrow's paperwork.

What exactly the EUDR law requires of coffee

The regulation does not ban coffee. It requires proof of origin. Every batch must be accompanied by a due diligence declaration with geolocation of the plots, and the cut-off date chosen by Brussels is the year 2000: any deforestation after that is barred. The problem, critical analyses point out, is that much of the deforestation associated with coffee cultivation peine before that threshold, so the rule targets a phenomenon that has largely already stopped. Meanwhile, the cost of certification falls on the weakest link: the small farmer in producing countries who lives off a couple of hectares.

The list of affected products is not short: coffee, cocoa, rubber, soy, palm oil and cattle. And here comes the first contradiction being debated. These are commodities the EU does not produce in any significant quantity, so the rule protects no European farmer from unfair competition. If someone cleared forest to plant potatoes, the law would say nothing. If they clear it for cocoa, the product cannot enter.

Coffee prices are already pricing in the rule

The evolution of commodity prices since 2023 points in an uncomfortable direction. Coffee, cocoa, palm oil and rubber have risen sharply during the period in which the measure was announced and developed. That is not proof of a single cause — poor harvests and speculation also play a part — but the timing matches up too well. Some argue the rule could double current prices; others consider that exaggerated and note that coffee was already expensive due to droughts and failed harvests in several origins.

The case of cocoa deserves a chapter of its own. Much of African cocoa will struggle to prove the required traceability, which could strain that market even more than coffee. In coffee, South American countries have been preparing the ground for years: governments, cooperatives and organisations have pushed the geolocation of plots so as not to be shut out of the European market. The question is how many small producers will be able to afford that process.

The timetable ahead: 30 December 2026

The key date for consumers is 30 December 2026. From then on, large and medium-sized operators and traders must comply with due diligence requirements. Micro and small businesses get six more months, until 30 June 2027. In practice, price adjustments are not waiting for the legal timetable: operators are already building certification and traceability costs into their purchases.

The result is silent inflation in an everyday consumer product. Coffee is the most traded commodity after oil, and consumption does not fall when the price rises: quality is cut or formats change. That is why the conversation drifts towards stockpiling. Some have already stockpiled two years' worth. Others calculate that capsules, already extremely expensive compared with bulk coffee, will rise too. And a third group has opted for withdrawal: switching to herbal teas and buying coffee only when the price justifies it.

The paradox of coffee that competes with no one

The most repeated argument against the rule is not that deforestation does not matter. It is that the EU applies extreme rigour to products that do not compete with its own agriculture while applying a different standard to what does affect it. Add to that regulatory suspicion: every new administrative requirement on a basic commodity ends up being passed on to the final price, and the consumer pays the bill for certification without anyone having asked.

The defence of the rule is reasonable in the abstract: if the world will not curb imported deforestation, the EU tries to do so through trade. The problem is that the world is not just the EU's twenty-seven member states. The United States applies nothing equivalent, and producing countries can divert their supply to less demanding markets. The rule makes European coffee more expensive without guaranteeing that less deforestation happens on the planet.

With the timetable now fixed and prices already pricing in the paperwork, the open question is not whether coffee will rise. It is how much of that rise is avoided deforestation and how much is bureaucracy billed to the consumer.